螺丝钉黄金星级和牛熊信号板来啦：黄金估值如何？｜2025年11月

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a gold bull-bear signal board by the company, which helps assess the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The signal board is updated regularly to provide timely insights into gold pricing trends [1][2]. Gold Price Overview - Gold prices are primarily referenced from London gold for overseas markets and Shanghai gold for domestic markets. The common reference for gold price in China is the price per gram of Shanghai gold [5]. - Historical data shows that in November 2025, gold was rated at 1.1 stars, with the lowest valuation reaching over 4 stars in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 experienced a prolonged bear market for gold, which was longer than the historical bear market in A-shares. Since 2017, gold has gradually recovered from undervaluation, with significant price increases noted in 2019-2020 and from 2023 to the present [7]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: 1. US Dollar: The actual interest rate of the dollar, calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate, significantly impacts gold prices. A substantial decrease in the actual interest rate typically leads to an increase in gold prices, while a rise results in a decrease [11]. 2. Mining Costs: As of this year, the cost of gold mining has reached approximately $1600 per ounce, which is significantly higher than in previous years. If gold prices fall below mining costs, it presents a buying opportunity, classified as a 5-star opportunity [15]. 3. Geopolitical Risks: Events such as regional conflicts and financial crises can drive up gold prices as it is viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty [17]. Gold Volatility and Risk - Gold typically exhibits a volatility rate around 35% and a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, which is comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock position. Generally, gold's risk level is slightly lower than that of average stock assets but higher than bond assets [19][21]. Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds generally yield slightly lower returns than the actual gold price due to management fees and cash reserves held for redemptions [27][30]. - Physical Gold: This includes gold bars, panda coins, and gold jewelry. Gold bars are often available at minimal premiums, while panda coins, issued by the People's Bank of China, are popular for their craftsmanship. Gold jewelry typically carries higher premiums due to manufacturing costs [32][36].