乘用车零售降幅扩大——每周经济观察第44期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward pressures on various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and trade dynamics, while also addressing the implications of recent policy changes and international trade negotiations. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index slightly declined to 4.82% as of October 26, down 0.42 points from the previous week [3][10] - Retail sales of passenger cars saw a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 9% as of October 26, compared to a previous decline of 3% [3][15] - Real estate sales also worsened, with a year-on-year decrease of 33% in the last week of October across 67 cities [3][15] Group 2: Price Trends - Prices for real estate and new energy products rebounded, with rebar prices in Shanghai reaching 3210 CNY per ton, up 0.6%, and iron ore prices increasing by 1.9% to 107.7 USD per ton [2][40] - The national cement price index rose by 0.2%, while industrial silicon and polysilicon futures saw increases of 1.5% and 7.8%, respectively [2][40] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Container throughput at ports decreased by 8.2% as of October 26, indicating a slowdown in trade activity [3][26] - The number of vessels from China to the U.S. dropped significantly, down 30.4% year-on-year in the first half of November [3][26] - However, potential re-export trade remains resilient, with a 6.5% increase in vessel calls at major ASEAN ports in October [3][27] Group 4: Policy and Financial Measures - The Chinese government has fully deployed 500 billion CNY in new policy financial tools, supporting over 2300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion CNY [6][45] - Recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a one-year extension of the trade truce, with the U.S. canceling certain tariffs on Chinese goods [5][28] Group 5: Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure activity showed signs of decline, with cement dispatch rates falling to 37.4% as of October 24, down 1% from the previous week [3][18] - The operating rate of asphalt plants also decreased, averaging 31% in the last two weeks of October [3][18] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Service consumption, such as subway ridership, showed slight recovery, with a 0.7% increase in the last week of October compared to the previous year [3][13] - Non-durable goods consumption growth slowed, with express delivery volume growth dropping to 6.4% year-on-year as of October 26 [3][15]