美股风险的三组观察指标

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing concerns about an AI bubble in the U.S. stock market, contrasting current market conditions with the 2000 dot-com bubble, particularly focusing on valuation, corporate debt, and macro investment trends [2][10]. Group 1: Market Valuation - The current valuation of the S&P 500 index has reached levels comparable to those in 1999-2000, while the absolute and relative valuations of MAG7 are significantly lower than those of the Nasdaq during the same period. As of the end of October, MAG7's PE ratio is approximately 41X, which is 1.4 times that of the S&P 500 index [3][11]. - In 1999-2000, the Nasdaq's PE ratio exceeded 100X, over four times that of the S&P 500. Notable companies today, such as Nvidia (59X), META (23X), Microsoft (37X), and Oracle (59X), have valuations lower than those of companies like Cisco (200X) and Yahoo (666X) back in March 2000 [3][11]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the S&P 500 is currently around 4%, compared to less than 1% at the beginning of 2000. A simple estimation using PE ratios suggests an ERP of approximately -0.6% now, versus a low of -2.9% in early 2000 [16]. Group 2: Corporate Debt - The debt-to-asset ratio for the S&P 500 is about 27%, lower than the average of 38% during 1999-2000. The MAG7's debt-to-asset ratio is approximately 17%, the lowest since 2015 [4][19]. - The debt-to-EBITDA ratio for the S&P 500 is around 3.6, compared to an average of 4.7 in 1999-2000. For MAG7, this ratio is about 0.6, also the lowest since 2015 [4][19]. Group 3: Macro Investment and Profits - Private investment in information processing equipment in the U.S. accounts for 2% of nominal GDP as of Q2 this year, which is relatively low compared to 2.8% during the 1999-2000 peak. Software investment is at 2.4%, slightly above the trend from 2004-2019, while it was 1.5% in 1999-2000 [22]. - The EPS of the S&P 500 has not shown significant divergence from U.S. corporate profits, unlike the period from 1998 to 2000, where EPS was inflated due to stock options and other accounting practices [23].