OPEC决定12月小幅增产，但明年一季度暂停增产：申万期货早间评论-20251104

Group 1 - OPEC+ decided to slightly increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in December, maintaining the same increase as in October and November, and will pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026 to address market volatility and seasonal demand changes [1][2] - The adjustment in oil production is part of a broader strategy, with OPEC+ countries planning to compensate for previous overproduction by reducing daily output by 822,000 barrels in June [2][14] - The rubber market is experiencing a decline due to increased supply as harvesting progresses, with potential supply pressures emerging, while demand remains relatively weak [2][16] Group 2 - The European shipping index (EC) showed fluctuations, closing at 1851.7 points, down 1.6%, while the SCFIS European line index decreased by 7.9% during the period from October 27 to November 2, reflecting a slight adjustment in freight rates [3][29] - The macroeconomic outlook remains relatively positive, with ongoing discussions about price stability during the peak season at the end of the year [3][30] - The domestic futures market showed mixed results, with some commodities like soybean meal and paper pulp rising over 1%, while others like styrene and methanol fell more than 2% [1][2]