看懂黄牛“大逃杀”，就看清了茅台的实境

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant slowdown in the performance of Kweichow Moutai and the broader Chinese liquor industry, highlighting a structural imbalance in the pricing system and a shift from a demand-driven market to one facing excess inventory and declining enthusiasm from investors [2][28]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Kweichow Moutai achieved revenue of 130.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.627 billion yuan, up 6.25% [4]. - However, the third quarter showed a marked slowdown, with revenue of 39.81 billion yuan and net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of only 0.35% and 0.48%, respectively [4]. Pricing and Sales Channels - The traditional pricing system of Moutai is experiencing structural imbalances, with direct channel revenue declining by 14.87% year-on-year in Q3, and the iMoutai platform's liquor revenue plummeting by 57.24% [5]. - The wholesale channel has become the main growth driver, generating 23.5 billion yuan in revenue with a year-on-year increase of 14.39% [5]. Industry Trends - Other leading liquor brands are also facing significant declines, with Wuliangye's revenue down 52.66% and net profit down 65.62%, while Yanghe's revenue fell by 29.01%, resulting in losses [6]. - The entire liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with many investors still holding onto the belief in high profit margins despite the poor Q3 reports [7]. Market Dynamics - Moutai's market price has been declining, with the price of a 25-year-old Moutai bottle dropping to 1,675 yuan, marking a significant decrease from previous highs [9][11]. - The market has seen a reversal from high premiums to prices approaching factory prices, leading to situations where distributors face losses due to the cost of acquiring Moutai exceeding market prices [11][20]. Inventory Issues - The liquor industry is facing a high inventory situation, with 58.1% of distributors reporting increased stock levels and an average inventory turnover period of 900 days, up 10% year-on-year [25]. - The long inventory cycle, combined with a significant reduction in production since 2016, has led to a situation where excess stock is becoming a liability rather than an asset [25][26]. Structural Crisis - The current downturn is characterized by a lack of demand rather than cyclical fluctuations, marking a departure from previous recoveries that relied on demand rebounds [27]. - The article suggests that the next decade for the liquor industry, particularly for Moutai, will involve a prolonged process of inventory clearance and adjustment to new market realities [28].