“申”度解盘 | 三季报落幕，这些信号要注意

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current market is in a phase characterized by "policy support + profit recovery + structural differentiation," suggesting a focus on sectors poised for recovery from low levels [6][10]. Market Review - The A-share market exhibited structural differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.11%. The total market turnover reached 11.63 trillion yuan, indicating active trading [7]. - Large-cap stocks underperformed, with the CSI 300 down by 0.43% and the SSE 50 down by 1.12%. In contrast, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose by 1.0% and 1.18%, respectively, indicating a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks [7]. - Key sectors such as fine chemicals, shipping, and metals performed well, while previously leading sectors like semiconductors, communications, and energy equipment lagged [7]. - The article highlights two significant developments in October: the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which accelerates the development of new energy, low-altitude economy, quantum technology, 6G, brain-computer interfaces, and embodied intelligence, and the establishment of a US-China economic consensus, which is seen as a positive market signal [7]. Q3 Earnings Analysis - The third-quarter reports indicate that the net profit attributable to shareholders of A-share listed companies grew by over 5% year-on-year, with a notable increase of over 11% in Q3 alone, suggesting a clear improvement in corporate profitability [8]. - Some technology stocks saw their profits double year-on-year, although some experienced a decline in quarter-on-quarter performance, indicating potential overvaluation in certain cases [8]. - Despite some industries still facing losses, there are signs of narrowing losses, and stock price increases have been modest. The article suggests focusing on sectors expected to recover, such as steel, coal, and healthcare [8]. Fund Positioning - Public funds have reached historically high positions, with technology sector allocations nearing 40%. Historical data suggests that when a sector's allocation exceeds 30%, it often leads to a reversal [9]. - The article warns that while there is a narrative of industrial upgrades and domestic substitution in technology, the rapid increase in holdings may necessitate caution regarding potential style shifts in the market [9]. Market Outlook - The market is currently navigating a complex interplay of "policy support + profit recovery + structural differentiation." While macro data has not fully rebounded, industry policies are reshaping market expectations [10]. - The article encourages patience and confidence in sectors experiencing stagnation and those with imminent profit rebounds, while advising caution regarding heavily weighted technology sectors [10]. - It is recommended to focus on coal, steel, and healthcare sectors during this period of style transition [10].