巴克莱：供应集中+核能超级周期=一个多年的“铀牛市”

Core Viewpoint - The uranium market is entering a structural bull market driven by a significant supply-demand imbalance, geopolitical risks, and a nuclear energy supercycle, with global uranium demand expected to increase by 124% to 391 million pounds by 2040 [3][9]. Supply Concentration and Geopolitical Risks - The uranium supply chain is highly concentrated, with Kazakhstan accounting for nearly 40% of global production and Russia controlling about 40% of processing capacity, creating significant geopolitical risks [1][5]. - The top five companies, including Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom, Canada's Cameco, and France's Orano, control 70% of global uranium production, exacerbating supply risks [5]. Demand Surge Driven by Nuclear Energy - The demand for uranium is expected to surge due to the nuclear energy supercycle, with the World Nuclear Association predicting an increase from 175 million pounds in 2024 to 391 million pounds by 2040, a growth of 124% [9][12]. - Key drivers of this demand include the expansion of nuclear power in China, the restart of nuclear plants in the U.S., and the rise of small modular reactors (SMRs) [12]. Supply Response Challenges - Uranium supply is inelastic due to long exploration cycles, high capital investment, and regulatory hurdles, with new mines taking over ten years to develop [13]. - A supply deficit is projected to occur as early as 2032, even considering existing inventories, establishing a solid foundation for a prolonged uranium bull market [13]. Policy Support and Supply Chain Restructuring - Governments are actively working to localize the uranium value chain in response to supply security challenges, creating unprecedented opportunities for related companies [15]. - The U.S. government has taken significant steps, including an executive order to accelerate domestic mineral production and a commitment to quadruple nuclear power capacity by 2050 [16][17]. - The EU is also moving towards supporting policies that aim to reduce dependence on Russian uranium imports, with significant investments needed for nuclear power projects [20][21].