美国正走向“流动性危机”，“政府关门”相当于加息？下一步对市场至关重要

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has withdrawn $700 billion in liquidity from the market, creating pressure comparable to multiple interest rate hikes, but it also presents an opportunity for a significant rebound in risk assets once the government reopens [1][3][15]. Group 1: Liquidity Crisis - The U.S. is facing a severe liquidity crisis, exacerbated by the government shutdown, which has drained market liquidity, with key financing indicators reaching critical levels [3][6]. - The use of the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) reached $14.75 billion, marking the second-highest usage since its establishment, with a record high of $50.35 billion the previous week [3][6]. - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) surged by 22 basis points to 4.22%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's excess reserve rate of 3.9%, widening the spread to 32 basis points, the highest since March 2020 [4][6]. Group 2: Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown has forced the Treasury to increase its cash balance from $300 billion to $1 trillion over the past three months, severely draining market liquidity [6][15]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance exceeded $1 trillion for the first time since April 2021, indicating that over $700 billion has been siphoned from the market [15]. - The reduction in bank reserves to $2.85 trillion is the lowest since early 2021, with foreign commercial banks' cash assets dropping by over $300 billion in four months [6][12]. Group 3: Potential for Market Rebound - Analysts suggest that once the government reopens, the Treasury will release several hundred billion dollars back into the market, potentially triggering a massive buying spree in risk assets [8][17]. - This liquidity release could lead to significant rebounds in sensitive assets like Bitcoin and small-cap stocks, reminiscent of the early 2021 scenario [17][20]. - Goldman Sachs predicts the government shutdown may end around the second week of November, with a 50% probability of reopening before mid-November [20].