Palantir三季度营收同比暴增63%，连续21个季度超预期，军工订单爆棚，上调全年营收指引

Core Viewpoint - Palantir reported a record revenue growth of 63% year-over-year in Q3, reaching $1.18 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of $1.09 billion. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $4.4 billion, marking the third upward revision this year [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was $1.18 billion, a 63% increase year-over-year, surpassing the analyst forecast of $1.09 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.21, exceeding the expected $0.17 [4][8]. - Net profit for the quarter surged to $475.6 million, more than doubling year-over-year. Free cash flow expectations were raised to $1.9-2.1 billion [8]. - The company’s stock price increased by over 170% this year, with a market capitalization reaching $490 billion. The forward P/E ratio stands at 246.2, significantly higher than Nvidia's 33.3 [8][20]. Business Segments Commercial Business Growth - The commercial business in the U.S. saw a remarkable revenue increase of 121% year-over-year, totaling $397 million, nearly double analyst expectations. The total contract value in this segment quadrupled to $1.31 billion [10][11]. - Full-year guidance for U.S. commercial revenue was raised to $1.43 billion, indicating continued triple-digit growth in Q4. This performance challenges the perception of Palantir's reliance on government contracts [11][12]. Government Business Stability - The government segment remains a strong foundation for Palantir, with Q3 revenue of $486 million, reflecting a 52% year-over-year growth. Recent contracts include $100 million from the IRS and a $4 billion contract with the U.S. government [15][16]. - Despite the strong performance, there are concerns regarding potential impacts from government shutdowns on contract execution in Q4 and beyond [16]. Valuation Concerns - Palantir's stock has risen over 170% this year, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500, but its extreme P/E ratio raises concerns among analysts about sustainability and potential disconnection from fundamentals [20]. - CEO Alex Karp defended the company's valuation, arguing that it provides retail investors with returns previously accessible only to top venture capitalists, emphasizing real and substantial growth [21][22].