美国正走向“流动性危机”，“政府关门”相当于加息？下一步对市场至关重要

Core Viewpoint - The United States is facing a severe liquidity crisis, exacerbated by the government shutdown, which is draining market liquidity and creating conditions similar to multiple interest rate hikes, while also setting the stage for a potential rebound in risk assets by year-end [1][2][16]. Group 1: Liquidity Crisis Indicators - Key financing indicators show that market pressure has reached a critical point, with the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) usage hitting $14.75 billion, the second-highest since its establishment, and a record high of $50.35 billion reached the previous Friday [2]. - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) surged by 22 basis points to 4.22% on October 31, significantly above the Federal Reserve's excess reserve rate of 3.9%, widening the spread to 32 basis points, the highest since March 2020 [4]. - The Federal Reserve's reserves have dropped to $2.85 trillion, the lowest since early 2021, while foreign commercial banks' cash assets have plummeted by over $300 billion in four months [6][11]. Group 2: Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown has forced the Treasury to increase its cash balance from $300 billion to $1 trillion over the past three months, severely draining market liquidity [6][13]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance exceeded $1 trillion for the first time since April 2021, indicating that the Treasury has withdrawn over $700 billion from the market to maintain operations during the shutdown [13][16]. - This situation has effectively made the Treasury a key decision-maker in monetary policy, as its fiscal actions are determining liquidity conditions [14]. Group 3: Potential for Market Rebound - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that the government shutdown may end within two weeks, potentially releasing thousands of billions of dollars back into the market, which could trigger a significant buying spree in risk assets [8][21]. - The release of liquidity could lead to a rebound in the stock market, similar to the "invisible quantitative easing" seen in early 2021, with potential surges in liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin and small-cap stocks [18][20]. - The timing of the government reopening is critical, as it could coincide with year-end market dynamics, amplifying the impact of released liquidity [21].