国泰海通｜“启航新征程”2026年度策略会观点集锦（下）——消费、医药、科技、先进制造、金融

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The core investment strategy emphasizes growth first, with supply and demand clearing leading to a turning point. The white wine sector is accelerating its clearing process, while consumer goods show strong resilience [2] - The white wine market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with sales bottoming out and inventory clearing accelerating. The current adjustment cycle is longer compared to previous cycles, indicating a U-shaped recovery rather than a V-shaped one [2] - Beer and beverage sectors are stable, with beer prices and sales remaining steady. The beverage industry shows strong resilience, particularly among leading brands driven by major products [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is stabilizing, with certain industries like food ingredients and health products still in a growth phase. There is a notable divergence within the sector, with seasoning products performing relatively well [3] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty and personal care industry is witnessing a stable demand environment, with a slight recovery in foreign investment. The cosmetics retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.9% in the first nine months of 2025, slightly lagging behind the overall retail market [7] - The brand landscape is changing, with domestic brands experiencing a slowdown in replacement trends, while foreign brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder are recovering in the Chinese market [7] Group 4: Social Services and Retail - The service consumption sector is expected to benefit from new policies aimed at expanding service consumption, with education and tea/coffee sectors showing significant growth potential [10] - Emotional value and experiential consumption are driving rapid growth in certain segments, particularly in the IP toy industry, which is still in a high growth phase [11] Group 5: Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is transitioning to a post-subsidy era, with domestic demand recovering slowly. The industry is expected to undergo significant consolidation before stronger market leaders emerge [15] - Companies with advantageous overseas layouts and those actively seeking business model transformations are expected to perform well [16] Group 6: Agriculture - The pet market is experiencing robust growth, with domestic brands gaining traction. The pet food market is steadily growing, driven by increased consumer willingness to spend on pets [26] - The planting sector is focusing on innovation, particularly in seed development and specialty crops [26] Group 7: Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical industry is seeing opportunities in innovative drugs, particularly in oncology and metabolic fields, with a focus on next-generation treatments [29][30] - The demand for CXO services is gradually recovering, with a focus on performance certainty in the domestic market [31] Group 8: Banking - The banking sector is expected to see stable performance in 2026, with net profit growth driven by wealth management and retail lending [67][68] - The focus is on identifying banks with strong growth potential and those that can leverage retail and international business opportunities [62][69]