国泰海通｜“启航新征程”2026年度策略会观点集锦（上）——总量、周期

Macro Overview - The core viewpoint is that China's economy has significant growth potential in the medium to long term, with a stable macroeconomic total in 2025 but noticeable structural differentiation, requiring policy solutions for weak domestic demand in 2026 [2] - Price stability is crucial for growth, as price indicators are central to understanding changes in domestic demand [2] Investment Strategy - The "transformation bull market" in China is expected to continue, with the stock market entering a significant growth cycle starting in 2025, driven by capital market reforms and economic structural transformation [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points again is a significant milestone, with further upward potential anticipated [8] - The underlying logic of the Chinese stock market is shifting, with three core factors that previously led to valuation discounts now being dismantled: improved confidence in handling US-China risks, a return to economic construction focus, and the end of the renminbi asset contraction cycle [8][9] Sector Analysis - Urbanization as a growth driver is fading, with reform and transformation becoming the primary focus [9] - The three main drivers of the "transformation bull market" include the decline of risk-free returns, capital market reforms enhancing market investability, and increased certainty in China's transformation development [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in technology growth sectors, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption, and financial stocks, with a focus on quality strategies over barbell strategies [10] Hong Kong Market Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned for upward potential, with a significant inflow of capital expected, particularly from foreign investors [13][14] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus for 2026, with opportunities in innovative drugs and brokerage firms [15] Fund Evaluation - The public fund industry is shifting towards a focus on equity, benchmarks, and long-term performance, with a growing emphasis on active equity funds and passive index funds [30][31] - The sales environment for public funds is evolving towards a model that prioritizes long-term client interests and diversified asset allocation [32] Fixed Income Strategy - The fixed income market is expected to experience a shift in macroeconomic anchors, with a focus on multi-asset investment opportunities in a low-interest-rate environment [35][36] Real Estate Outlook - The real estate market is anticipated to undergo changes, with a focus on marginal improvements and long-term growth potential [39][40] Transportation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by recovering demand and a favorable pricing environment [52][53] - The shipping industry is also poised for growth, with increasing demand for oil and dry bulk shipping [56][57] Coal Industry - The coal sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by recovering demand and supply constraints [74][75] Steel Industry - The steel industry is projected to stabilize, with demand recovering and supply constraints expected to support profitability [80][81]