霍华德·马克斯：低承受能力却高风险意愿的人是“幼稚型”

Core Viewpoint - The memo by Howard Marks emphasizes the importance of understanding risk tolerance and willingness in investment decision-making, highlighting that the ultimate goal is to meet specific investment objectives rather than outperforming peers [4][8]. Group 1: Attitude Towards Risk - The memo introduces a two-dimensional matrix categorizing risk tolerance and willingness, which helps in understanding the financial capacity and psychological readiness to take risks [5][20]. - The four quadrants of the matrix are defined as follows: "Fully Utilized" for high capacity and willingness, "Defensive" for high capacity but low willingness, "Protective" for low capacity and willingness, and "Immature" for low capacity but high willingness [27][29]. - The board's risk willingness is moderate, but their financial capacity is above average, allowing them to avoid excessive volatility while still achieving reasonable returns [29][30]. Group 2: Setting Investment Goals - The board prioritizes investment goals, placing "outperforming peers" at the bottom, indicating a focus on fulfilling pension obligations rather than relative performance [46][48]. - The primary goal for a pension plan is to ensure the payment of pensions while minimizing costs to the sponsor, rather than competing with peers [49][50]. - The memo stresses that success is defined by the ability to meet pension commitments, regardless of the performance of peers [51][52]. Group 3: Volatility and Performance Measurement - The board ranks the Sharpe ratio last among performance metrics, emphasizing the importance of ensuring pension payment capabilities over maintaining stable contributions [61][62]. - The memo argues that investors often overemphasize volatility as a risk measure, suggesting that the focus should be on the risk of permanent loss instead [64][65]. - The discussion highlights that the perception of risk is influenced by external factors, and that volatility may not be a significant concern for long-term investors [71][72]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Tactics - The board agrees that investment portfolios should be designed to adapt to various environments rather than relying on market timing [78]. - A majority of members are open to using leverage within a range of 15% to 20%, which is deemed reasonable given the fund's financial stability [80][81]. - The board supports allocating a portion of the portfolio to illiquid assets, provided that pension payments and expected cash needs are met [83]. Group 5: Performance Evaluation - The most important performance metric identified is achieving the actuarial return assumption, followed by outperforming the policy benchmark [93][94]. - The memo discusses the challenges of evaluating investment performance, emphasizing the need for relative rather than absolute benchmarks in the short term [100][101]. - It concludes that performance evaluation should cover a complete market cycle to accurately assess investment capabilities [115][116].