Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting a mixed performance across various sectors, with some showing signs of recovery while others remain weak. Industrial Production Tracking - The operating rate of blast furnaces has significantly declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% to 81.7%, and a year-on-year drop of 3.3 percentage points [2][6] - Steel apparent consumption has increased by 2.7% week-on-week and returned to positive territory year-on-year, up 2.9 percentage points to 2.8% [2][8] - Social inventory continues to decline, down 2.1% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand have shown slight improvement but remain weaker than the same period last year, with a grinding operating rate up 1% to 46.3% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [24][25] - Cement shipment rates increased by 0.8% week-on-week but are down 8.8% year-on-year [24][28] - The cement inventory ratio continues to rise, up 2.3% week-on-week [24][31] Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with a week-on-week drop of 11.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.3 percentage points to -25% [47][48] - The average daily transaction area in 30 major cities has seen significant declines, particularly in first-tier cities, which experienced a year-on-year drop of 20.1 percentage points [47][51] - Port cargo throughput has rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [57][64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing mixed performance, with vegetable prices rising by 8.1% week-on-week, while pork and egg prices have decreased by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively [99][100] - The overall industrial product prices are on the rise, with the South China Industrial Product Price Index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week [111][112]
国内高频 | 港口货运量大幅上行(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观·2025-11-04 15:23