中金2026年展望 | 房地产：“止跌回稳”，徐徐图之（要点版）

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to be in the early stage of "stabilization" with a "narrowing decline" in transaction volume and prices, transitioning through a three-step process: transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3][8][9]. Market Performance - The overall performance of the real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline in total transaction volume for both new and second-hand homes, with estimates showing a decline of 6.8% compared to 8.0% in 2024 [3][7]. - The cumulative price decline for second-hand homes remains consistent, while the average price decline for new homes is influenced by structural factors related to "good properties" [3][7]. Future Projections - In a neutral scenario for 2026, total housing transaction volume is projected to decline by 5.0%, with new homes and second-hand homes expected to decrease by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [4][10]. - The real estate investment decline is anticipated to stabilize at -14.9% in 2026, with a focus on land acquisition and construction as leading indicators [5][10]. Policy and Structural Adjustments - The pace of policy implementation in 2025 is expected to be slow, with challenges in the effective execution of supply-demand adjustment policies, such as land storage and urban village renovations [9][10]. - The need for proactive risk prevention measures is emphasized, particularly regarding credit risks for real estate companies and pressures from mortgage defaults [9][10]. Investment Indicators - The willingness of real estate companies to acquire land and start new projects is likely to remain under pressure, with new construction area expected to decline by 16.1% in a neutral scenario for 2026 [5][12]. - The construction area and physical completion area are projected to decrease by 9.3% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting a slow construction pace and reduced project intensity [5][12].