中金2026年展望 | 外汇：宽松交易或阶段性回归（要点版）

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market in 2025 has been significantly influenced by tariff expectations and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, with a notable decline in the dollar index during the second quarter due to unexpected tariff announcements and deteriorating employment data [2][3][4]. Group 1: 2025 Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, the dollar index fell from its high as Trump's tariff policies progressed slower than expected, reversing the "Trump trade" that had boosted the dollar [2][4]. - The second quarter saw a significant drop in the dollar index, primarily due to the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" that exceeded market expectations and rising trade tensions between the US and China, leading to concerns about the stability of the US economy and dollar assets [2][4]. - By the third quarter, the dollar's performance stabilized as the US reached tariff agreements with major trading partners, alleviating market concerns about economic stability, and the dollar entered a consolidation phase [2][4]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - For 2026, narrowing interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite are expected to be the main themes in currency trading, with the Fed's potential for rate cuts being greater than that of other non-US central banks [3][10]. - The US labor market is anticipated to slow down, prompting the Fed to consider more accommodative monetary policies, especially with a potential change in leadership at the Fed [3][11]. - The dollar's decline is expected to be limited due to the absence of crowded long positions and the relative economic strength of the US compared to Europe and Japan [3][13]. Group 3: Renminbi (RMB) Dynamics - The core variables influencing the RMB exchange rate in 2026 will be the dollar's performance and changes in US-China trade relations, with a stable exchange rate policy likely impacting the RMB's trajectory [4][16]. - The RMB appreciated approximately 2.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, initially facing depreciation pressure due to tariffs but later benefiting from the dollar's decline and improved trade negotiations [14][15]. - The expectation is that the RMB will continue to appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by the weakening dollar and converging interest rates between China and the US [16][17].