Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, breaking below the $100,000 psychological barrier for the first time since June, reaching around $99,932, and marking the second-largest single-day drop of the year [2][3]. Market Performance - In the past 24 hours, over 342,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation exceeding $1.32 billion, of which 85% were long positions [6][7]. - Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, also fell over 10%, dropping to around $3,225 [3]. Technical Analysis - The breach of the $100,000 level is not only a psychological barrier but also a critical technical support level [10]. - Analysts warn that if Bitcoin cannot hold this level, a deeper correction may occur, with the next target being around $74,000, indicating a potential downside of approximately 30% from current levels [10]. Market Sentiment - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has slipped into the "extreme fear" zone, reflecting widespread pessimism in the market [11][12]. - The shift in market sentiment is attributed to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have diminished expectations for interest rate cuts in December and strengthened the dollar, putting direct pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin [8][17]. Fund Flows and Liquidity - Investors have withdrawn over $1.8 billion from Bitcoin and Ethereum-related ETF products in the past four trading days, exacerbating market liquidity issues [8]. - The open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has decreased by about 30% from its peak in October, indicating that traders are actively reducing leveraged positions and that speculative interest in the market is rapidly declining [19]. Contrarian Views - Despite the prevailing negative sentiment, some investors are taking a contrarian stance. Strategy Company has recently increased its Bitcoin holdings by 397 BTC, spending approximately $45.6 million at an average price of $114,771 per BTC [21]. - Notable Wall Street bulls, such as Fundstrat's Tom Lee, maintain an optimistic outlook, predicting Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025 [22]. Potential Market Recovery Signals - On-chain indicators suggest potential signs of recovery, with the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) dropping to the 13-14 range, historically marking liquidity turning points [23]. - The current low SSR indicates that stablecoin liquidity may be quietly rebuilding, which could pave the way for a rebound or the final phase of a bull market [25].
币圈再度血流成河！比特币6月以来首次跌破10万大关，以太币暴跌10%
美股IPO·2025-11-04 23:44