月度前瞻 | 短期经济会否“超预期”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Economic Activity Changes - Economic activity has faced new pressures on both supply and demand sides since October, with a decrease in working days and high inventory levels constraining production [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with the production index declining more than new orders [2][9] - Demand pressure is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector, as companies accelerate debt repayments, which negatively impacts fixed asset investment [2][20] Profitability and Cost Pressures - Excluding low base effects, industrial profits are weaker than in previous years, with the overall cost rate at a historical high of 85.4% [3][31] - In September, industrial profits increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9% [3][31] Policy Measures to Mitigate Growth Pressure - The introduction of "incremental policies" aims to alleviate the investment squeeze caused by debt resolution, with nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy financial tools deployed by October [4][39] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to temporarily boost retail sales, while service consumption remains resilient, with a projected retail sales rebound of 3.4% in October [4][50] Export Dynamics - The U.S. threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods starting in November, which may trigger a "rush to export" phenomenon, supporting October's export figures [5][60] - October's export growth is expected to remain resilient at 7%, bolstered by a rise in processing trade imports [5][60] Monthly Data Performance - The PPI is expected to recover slightly to -2.1% in October, driven by rising prices of upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [6][74] - CPI is projected to rise to 0.4% year-on-year in October, supported by low base effects and resilient service consumption [6][82] Summary of Economic Outlook - Policies are actively countering internal economic pressures, with the actual GDP for October estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth [7][95] - High inventory levels and accelerated debt repayments are constraining supply and demand, but recent policy measures and easing U.S.-China tariff tensions may signal a potential economic recovery [7][95]