LSEG跟“宗” | 美联储12月降息生变 鲍威尔态度转向

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on economic data collection and the implications for interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding potential rate cuts in December [2][24]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the CFTC's futures market positioning data is only updated until September 23 [2]. - The probability of a rate cut in January has dropped from 67.6% to 23.8% over the past two weeks [2][22]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.95%, indirectly affecting gold prices [2][25]. - Managed positions in COMEX gold showed a net long position of 493 million, down 1.1% from the previous week, while silver saw a net long position increase of 5.1% [3]. Group 2: Commodity Market Dynamics - Agnico Eagle, a major gold producer, announced a $130 million investment to establish a new subsidiary focused on strategic resource projects [2]. - The net long position in U.S. futures for gold has decreased by 13% year-to-date, while platinum and copper have seen significant fluctuations [7][10][12]. - The article highlights the historical context of commodity price control through futures markets, particularly in relation to gold and copper [14]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Predictions - The article suggests that the U.S. will likely continue to cut interest rates next year, despite potential economic challenges [26]. - It discusses the possibility of a global economic downturn, with specific reference to inflation and its impact on commodity investments [28]. - The sentiment around gold as a safe-haven asset is reinforced by the current market dynamics, with expectations of continued price increases if the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance [25][27].