【石化化工】OPEC+暂停增产改善供给过剩，“三桶油”长期投资价值凸显——石化化工行业动态跟踪（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and will pause its production increase plan from January to March 2026, reflecting a balance between stabilizing oil prices and increasing production [4][5]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - The decision to pause production increases indicates OPEC+'s effort to balance oil price stabilization amid low demand expectations and rising inventory risks for Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 [5]. - Since 2025, OPEC+ has significantly increased production to penalize overproducing member countries and capture global market share, with production rising by 2.39 million barrels per day from December 2024 to September 2025 [5]. - OPEC+ has reiterated that production levels will be determined based on market changes, and the pause in production increases is expected to alleviate concerns regarding oil supply [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The current oil market faces a supply-demand surplus, and OPEC+'s decision to slow production increases may help mitigate this surplus risk [6]. - The IEA projects a demand growth of 700,000 barrels per day for 2026, but this growth is significantly lower than historical trends due to a sluggish macroeconomic environment and the electrification of transportation [6]. - On the supply side, the IEA anticipates a global oil supply increase of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, with both non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ contributing 1.2 million barrels per day each [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Oil Prices - Recent escalations in sanctions against Russia by the US and EU are expected to provide ongoing geopolitical risk premiums that support oil prices [7][8]. - The US Treasury has blacklisted two Russian state oil companies, and the EU has implemented a comprehensive ban on Russian LNG, indicating a tightening of energy sanctions [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Chinese Oil Companies - The "Big Three" Chinese oil companies are focusing on increasing reserves and production while enhancing cost control to navigate the new cycle of oil price volatility [9]. - China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are expected to see production growth rates of 1.6%, 1.5%, and 5.9% respectively in 2025 [9]. - These companies are also transitioning their refining businesses to low-cost and high-value operations, positioning themselves for long-term growth despite oil price fluctuations [9].