螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板来啦：当前市场估值如何｜2025年11月份

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of November 2025, focusing on the bull-bear signal board, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1][8]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests the market is undervalued [19]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that the current market valuation is at 64.72% for large-cap value stocks and 76.33% for small-cap value stocks, indicating a relatively normal valuation range [3]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 2.61, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as values above 2 typically indicate good investment opportunities [24]. - The current financing balance in the A-share market is 24,770 billion yuan, reflecting a relatively low market activity level [25]. - The trading volume percentile is at 91.10%, indicating high trading activity compared to historical levels [25]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances has decreased significantly, and the high rate of new stock failures suggests a bearish market sentiment [31]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 indicates that the market is currently near a liquidity bottom, which typically correlates with a bearish market [33]. - The scale of old funds has decreased by 50-60% compared to their peak in 2021, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the current market [37]. - The issuance of new funds has reached historical lows, with a notable increase in the issuance of A500 index funds recently, but still far from the levels seen in 2021 [42]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 17.39%, which may indicate a cautious market outlook from fund managers [44]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The article notes that the market has experienced two significant low points in early 2024, both marked by a star rating of 5.9, indicating extreme undervaluation [51]. - Following these low points, the market has shown signs of recovery, with the star rating improving to around 4.2 by November 2025, suggesting a gradual return to normal valuation levels [55]. - The article emphasizes the importance of combining both quantitative and qualitative signals to gain a comprehensive understanding of market conditions [50].