美股周四反弹？美国政府关门“势创纪录”，市场已然撑不住，周四或是“破局时刻”？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 35th day, is causing significant turmoil in financial markets, with liquidity being drained similarly to multiple interest rate hikes. However, there are signs of potential progress in negotiations between the two parties in Congress, with some Republican lawmakers optimistic about reaching an agreement this week [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - The shutdown has led to a severe liquidity crisis, with the U.S. Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance increasing from approximately $300 billion to over $1 trillion in the past three months, effectively withdrawing over $700 billion from the market [5]. - The tightening effect of this liquidity withdrawal is comparable to several interest rate hikes, as key financing rates are under pressure. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) surged by 22 basis points on October 31, indicating that actual financing costs have not decreased despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [6]. Group 2: Political Developments - There are indications of a thaw in the political deadlock, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune proposing a potential solution that combines a short-term funding bill with a vote on extending subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which is seen as a critical step to break the impasse [3][8]. - Some Republican senators express confidence that an agreement could be reached by the end of the week, particularly after local elections, which may pressure Democrats to soften their stance [4][8]. Group 3: Internal Party Divisions - Within the Democratic Party, there are noticeable divisions, with moderate members considering a compromise to temporarily reopen the government in exchange for a future vote on ACA subsidies. This proposal has angered progressive members who view it as a betrayal [9][10]. - Former President Trump has added complexity to the negotiations by pressuring Republicans to eliminate the Senate's filibuster rule, which could disrupt the negotiation process even if an agreement is reached in the Senate [10].