【策略月报】牛市歇脚，震荡整固——2025年11月资产配置报告

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates in December, with a probability of a 25 basis point cut due to moderate inflation and a weak job market [4] - After the US-China trade negotiations, tariffs on China have been reduced by 10%, but ongoing competition between the two countries is expected to persist [4] - The overall impact of tariffs on US inflation is limited, with future inflation expected to remain stable due to insufficient demand [4] Domestic Macro - The economic performance in the first three quarters exceeded expectations, with GDP growth of 4.8% in Q3 and 5.2% year-to-date, making it feasible to achieve the annual growth target [4] - There is a noticeable divergence between domestic and external demand, with domestic consumption and investment declining while external demand remains strong [4] - Price indices are stabilizing at low levels, but there are still downward pressures that require further policy support [4] Policy Outlook - The overall policy environment is expected to remain stable, with no urgent need for new incremental policies, although a new 500 billion yuan policy tool may focus on infrastructure investment [4] - If economic pressures increase, additional policies may be introduced to support growth [4] A-share Strategy and Views - The market is expected to experience a phase of consolidation, with a balanced style emerging due to increased volatility around the 4000-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The focus on technology innovation remains a long-term strategy, with opportunities anticipated in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and new energy after the current consolidation phase [4] - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced approach in asset allocation, considering indices like CSI 300 and focusing on opportunities in technology after the market stabilizes [4] Asset Allocation Views - The current asset allocation stance is neutral across various categories, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and bonds, reflecting a cautious approach in the current market environment [6]