等不到12月？货币市场压力持续发酵，美联储或提前出手救流动性

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of the money market is expected to persist until November, with increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to support liquidity before halting balance sheet reduction next month [2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) surged by 18 basis points last Friday, marking the largest single-day increase since the Fed's rate hike cycle began in March 2020 [2]. - Despite a slight retreat on Monday, SOFR remains above key policy benchmarks like the federal funds rate, indicating ongoing liquidity issues in the market [2]. - Other short-term rates in the overnight repurchase market continue to trade above the Fed's managed rates, reflecting persistent funding pressures [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced it will stop reducing its holdings of Treasury securities in December, ending a three-year quantitative tightening effort due to increasing liquidity constraints [3]. - There are internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the timing of asset purchases, with some officials advocating for a minimal balance sheet while others suggest increasing reserves to keep pace with the banking system and economic growth [3][4]. - Recent data shows bank reserves have fallen to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level since September 2020, raising concerns about market distortions [3]. Group 3: Interest Rate Dynamics - Dallas Fed President Logan indicated that if repo rates remain high, the Fed will need to purchase assets, expressing disappointment over the three-party repo rates exceeding the Fed's standing repo facility rate [4]. - The SOFR was 32 basis points higher than the reserve balance rate last Friday, the largest spread since 2020, although it fell to 4.13% on Monday, still above the current reserve balance rate of 3.9% [4]. - The pressure in the tri-party market may be more severe than indicated by published rates, prompting calls for the Fed to take more aggressive actions, including purchasing Treasury securities [4][5]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Implications - The current situation may reflect greater fragility in overnight financing rates compared to 2019, with large hedge funds holding approximately $1 trillion more in Treasury long positions than six years ago [5]. - The use of repo financing has nearly doubled since then, suggesting that similar actions to those taken in 2019, where the Fed injected $500 billion into the market, may be necessary to alleviate pressure during Treasury settlement periods or critical payment dates [5].