中金2026年展望丨农林牧渔：破内卷，寻新机（要点版）

Group 1: Industry Cycle - The new paradigm in livestock farming is reinforced, while the planting cycle is stabilizing after fluctuations. For pigs, the "anti-involution" policy highlights the value attributes of leading companies, with a slight decline in average pig prices expected in 2026 compared to 2025, showing a pattern of initial suppression followed by recovery [3][7]. - In the poultry sector, chicken prices are expected to remain stable due to abundant supply and moderate demand recovery, with leading companies enhancing operational resilience through integrated development across the supply chain [3][8]. - The feed industry shows long-term growth potential, particularly in aquaculture feed, supported by recovering farming profitability, while demand for livestock feed is expected to remain stable in 2026 [3][9]. - Domestic grain prices are anticipated to stabilize at the bottom, with corn prices expected to show weak fluctuations and soybean prices slightly recovering [3][9]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The pet economy is entering a mid-stage, focusing on market share enhancement, with the pet food industry projected to grow at over 10% annually in the next 3-5 years, driven by high-quality growth and increased competition [4][11]. - In pet healthcare, the industry is rapidly expanding, with a shift from land-grabbing to quality improvement, and leading companies are expected to optimize their market positions through enhanced operational efficiency [4][12]. - The kitchen food market, valued at trillions, is seeing structural opportunities with the popularity of fresh corn products, while the tea industry is experiencing brand upgrades that enhance consumer recognition and improve consumption experiences [4][13]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The agricultural technology narrative is shifting towards automation and biotechnology, with the mechanization of agriculture reaching a critical point due to reduced labor and increased demand for smart agricultural equipment [4][15]. - The seed industry is expected to see accelerated growth in genetically modified corn cultivation by 2026, supported by favorable policies and reduced price drag on grains [4][15]. - In animal health, the competition is intensifying, with opportunities for domestic pet health products to increase market penetration, particularly in differentiated categories like ruminant health [4][15].