中金2026年展望 | 轻工零售美妆：分化延续，优选成长（要点版）

Core Viewpoint - The light industry retail beauty sector is experiencing a weak recovery since 2025, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors and companies due to varying attributes and policy sensitivities. Domestic demand remains weak, while certain segments like trendy toys and beauty products show growth. International trade policies are slowing export growth. Looking ahead to 2026, government policies are expected to support consumption stabilization, but the marginal effects may diminish, leading to differentiated growth across sub-sectors [3]. Beauty and Aesthetic Medicine - The beauty sector is projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth in 2026, driven by domestic demand recovery. Ingredient upgrades and product innovations, particularly with emerging components like collagen and PDRN, are expected to enhance consumer purchasing needs. Competition is intensifying, leading to a concentration of market share among leading brands. The industry is anticipated to exhibit three trends: 1) National brands are moving towards globalization and group development; 2) Channel efficiency and operational capabilities are becoming more critical; 3) Market share is increasingly concentrated among top-performing brands [6]. - The aesthetic medicine sector is expected to see double-digit growth in 2026, supported by increased penetration rates and continuous market education. The supply side is becoming richer, stimulating demand. Two key trends are anticipated: 1) Midstream institutions are focusing on premium products and marketing capabilities; 2) Leading institutions are expanding through enhanced user operations and solutions [7]. Personal Care - The personal care sector is expected to benefit from increased online penetration and the rise of self-care demands, leading to a restructuring of the market. Product structures are anticipated to upgrade towards efficacy and premiumization. The rise of content e-commerce platforms is reshaping consumer access and marketing, providing opportunities for domestic brands to gain market share, particularly in segments like baby care, women's hygiene, and oral care [8]. Commercial New Retail - The retail sector is expected to continue its steady recovery into 2026, characterized by three trends: 1) Consumers are increasingly valuing cost-performance ratios, prompting businesses to focus on differentiated product offerings; 2) The clearance of outdated retail formats is nearing completion, with improved operational efficiency leading to profitability; 3) New consumption trends driven by emotional value are creating demand, supported by innovative product categories and localized operations [10]. Light Industry Manufacturing - The light manufacturing sector is facing weak overall demand but presents structural opportunities. Companies that can leverage industry transformation to develop new business models are expected to thrive. Key opportunities include: 1) Industry transformation driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI applications; 2) Export opportunities as companies enhance resilience through diversified global production and capitalize on improving overseas demand [13][14].