中金：股市与宏观背离的新视角

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between stock market performance and macroeconomic fundamentals, highlighting a potential shift in investor behavior towards increased risk asset allocation, particularly in the stock market, despite a stable wealth level among residents [2][4][15]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - The current market rally is characterized by a stable level of total wealth among residents, with no significant improvement observed [4][24]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is not widespread during this market rally, contrasting with previous market uptrends where a shift towards risk assets was more common [4][8]. - Historical data shows that in previous market rallies, the proportion of residents inclined to save decreased, while in the current rally, this proportion has slightly increased [8][9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in the proportion of investors willing to allocate more to the stock market, rising from 13.5% in Q2 2024 to 17.2% in Q3 2025 among those already investing in risk assets [15][19]. - The correlation between the choice to invest in stocks and overall income sentiment is weak, indicating that factors other than income perception are influencing stock market investments [15][33]. - The current increase in investment inclination is primarily driven by a decrease in consumption inclination, suggesting a shift in how residents allocate their funds [27][28]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Implications - The article suggests that if policies effectively restore income confidence, it could lead to increased support for the stock market from fundamental factors [34][35]. - The potential for foreign capital to diversify into RMB assets could further enhance the stock market's growth prospects [35]. - The article emphasizes the importance of addressing debt issues and supporting livelihoods to stabilize income confidence, which is crucial for the sustained development of the capital market [34][35].