中金2026年展望 | 旅游酒店餐饮：服务连锁正当时，布局强内功和高成长（要点版）

Core Viewpoint - The service industry is showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out after experiencing price pressure and same-store sales decline in 2024, with expectations for recovery in 2026 driven by domestic demand and policy expansion [2][3][8]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The service industry is expected to see a recovery in demand and a turning point in volume and price due to government policies aimed at boosting service consumption [3][8]. - The restaurant and hotel sectors are identified as the most promising areas for the emergence of large companies due to their broad consumer base and scalability [5][8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of strong internal capabilities and high-growth potential among leading companies in the industry [3][8]. Group 2: Restaurant Sector - The beverage segment is anticipated to face high baseline pressure in 2026, but leading brands are expected to achieve stable performance and gradually replace smaller chains [9]. - Fast food categories show resilience, while casual dining brands continue to experience differentiation in same-store sales [9]. - The article highlights the need for brands to meet consumer demands for value and emotional connection, as well as to possess strong operational and product capabilities [5][9]. Group 3: Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is still in a phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with a projected decline in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) of 5% in the first half of 2025 [10]. - High-quality hotel brands are expected to continue expanding their market share even during industry downturns due to superior product and service capabilities [10]. - The recovery of business demand is seen as a potential turning point for RevPAR to turn positive [10]. Group 4: Human Resources and Other Sectors - The human resources sector is characterized by strong cyclical attributes, with an increasing trend in flexible employment penetration [10]. - The duty-free sales sector is currently experiencing a bottoming out phase, with attention on the impact of Hainan's policy changes [10]. - The tourism sector is facing price pressures and investment costs, but there are potential catalysts from new project launches and transportation improvements [11].