美联储降息前景再添迷雾

Core Viewpoint - The ADP National Employment Report indicates that the U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, marking the first growth in three months, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in December [3][4]. Employment Market Stabilization - The private sector's job growth was primarily driven by the education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities sectors, while professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality sectors continued to see layoffs for the third consecutive month [5][6]. - The ADP report has gained importance as the only available reference for employment data due to the government shutdown, which has halted the Labor Statistics Bureau's operations since August [6]. - The current labor market is under significant pressure due to trade wars, tightened immigration policies, and the adoption of AI technologies, which are replacing some human jobs [6]. Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points, but the decision for further cuts in December is not guaranteed and will depend on the economic growth and employment dynamics [8][9]. - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates a 3.9% growth rate for Q3, which is double the sustainable growth rate without overheating the economy [8]. - Some regional Fed presidents oppose further rate cuts, citing a balanced labor market and high inflation, indicating a divergence in the Fed's policy direction [9]. Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown has led to significant uncertainty, affecting consumer and business confidence, with potential GDP impacts estimated between 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each week of shutdown [10]. - The shutdown has disrupted major welfare programs, affecting approximately 42 million Americans, which may lead to reduced consumer spending [10].