独家洞察 | 降息不确定性：美联储的两难与市场的困惑

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024, in response to moderate economic growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market's focus has shifted to the possibility of another rate cut in December, but Fed Chair Powell indicated that further cuts are not guaranteed, citing the need for more time to assess economic conditions due to recent government shutdowns affecting data accuracy [3][4]. - Powell's cautious stance reflects the Fed's dilemma of balancing the risk of new inflation against the need to support the labor market, indicating that there is no clear path for policy [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following Powell's remarks, market confidence was shaken, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping from 95% to 71%, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and a spike in short-term Treasury yields [3][4]. - Different Wall Street firms have varying predictions: Morgan Stanley anticipates continued rate cuts until January 2026, while Franklin Templeton warns that inflation concerns may limit the extent of future cuts [4]. - Nomura Securities suggests that the current easing cycle may be nearing its end, predicting no further cuts in December, while Goldman Sachs maintains that another cut is still possible before the year ends due to expected weak economic data [4][5].