Anthropic vs OpenAI：ToB企业级服务与个人订阅，谁将主导AI未来？

Core Insights - The article focuses on the comparison between OpenAI and Anthropic, highlighting their revenue sources and business models. OpenAI primarily relies on individual user subscriptions, while Anthropic focuses on B2B (business-to-business) services [2]. Revenue - Anthropic's revenue forecast for 2025 is projected at $4.7 billion, with an optimistic scenario suggesting it could reach $70 billion by 2028, reflecting an annual growth rate of approximately 28% over the next three years. The company's revenue last year was about $381 million [4]. - OpenAI is expected to achieve a revenue of $13 billion this year, which is nearly three times Anthropic's most optimistic forecast of $4.7 billion [7]. Profit Margin - Anthropic's gross margin is expected to improve significantly from a loss of -94% last year to a maximum of 50% this year, and it could reach 77% by 2028. This margin reflects the profitability after deducting production-related costs from revenue [7]. - If non-paying user costs are included, Anthropic's gross margin would decrease, with the most optimistic predictions showing -109% last year, 47% this year, and 75% by 2028 [10]. Cash Flow - Anthropic is expected to achieve positive cash flow as early as 2027, which is sooner than OpenAI, projected to reach positive cash flow by 2030. Despite OpenAI's larger revenue scale, its cash consumption this year is expected to be over three times that of Anthropic [10]. - In 2027, OpenAI's cash consumption is estimated to be around $35 billion, while Anthropic is projected to generate $3 billion in free cash flow. By 2028, Anthropic anticipates generating up to $17 billion in cash flow, while OpenAI's cash consumption is expected to approach $47 billion [13]. Valuation - Prior to the recent $13 billion funding round, Anthropic's valuation was approximately $170 billion, nearly three times its valuation from March of this year. If a new funding round is initiated, its target valuation could range between $300 billion and $400 billion [3]. - OpenAI's valuation has reached $500 billion in recent employee stock sale transactions [13]. Business Model Comparison - Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI executives, primarily sells its Claude series AI models to enterprise clients through APIs. Its business model is more focused compared to OpenAI, which has broader ambitions across various sectors including advertising and e-commerce [14]. - Anthropic's API and related business revenue is expected to be around $3.8 billion this year, surpassing OpenAI's previous estimate of $1.8 billion for API revenue. By 2028, API and enterprise application sales are projected to contribute over 80% of Anthropic's revenue [14]. - OpenAI's growth is expected to be driven mainly by subscription revenue from ChatGPT, with Microsoft providing OpenAI's API services through its Azure cloud platform [15].