研报 | 预计2026年CSP合计资本支出增至6,000亿美元以上，AI硬件生态链迎新成长周期

Core Insights - The article highlights the upward revision of capital expenditure (CapEx) growth for major North American Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) from 61% to 65% for 2025, with expectations of further growth to over $600 billion in 2026, reflecting the long-term growth potential of AI infrastructure [2][4]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - The eight major CSPs include Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu. Google has raised its 2025 CapEx forecast to $91-93 billion to meet the increasing demand for AI data centers and cloud computing [4]. - Meta has also increased its 2025 CapEx to $70-72 billion, indicating significant growth in 2026 [4]. - Amazon has adjusted its 2025 CapEx estimate to $125 billion, while Microsoft expects its 2026 CapEx to exceed that of 2025 [5]. Group 2: Impact on AI Hardware Ecosystem - The surge in CapEx is expected to stimulate demand for AI servers, driving growth in upstream supply chains such as GPU/ASIC, memory, packaging materials, and downstream systems like liquid cooling modules and power supplies [5][6]. - NVIDIA is anticipated to benefit significantly from this CapEx growth, with expected shipments of its GB300 and VR200 products surpassing previous forecasts, primarily driven by the top five North American CSPs [5]. - Oracle is expected to see substantial growth due to demand from North American government projects and cloud AI database leasing services [5]. Group 3: Future Developments in AI Solutions - The market is expected to adopt integrated AI solutions more aggressively in 2026, with NVIDIA planning to launch a new generation of VR200 racks [6]. - Competitor AMD is also set to promote its Helios integrated solutions, with Meta and Oracle being among the first adopters [6]. - Meta plans to significantly increase its CapEx by 65% to $118 billion in 2026 to support its initiatives in NVIDIA's GB/VR Rack and self-developed ASIC solutions [6].