IFLYTEK(SZ:002230) AI研究所·2025-11-06 06:30Core Insights - The Chinese large model industry is transitioning from a "technical frenzy" to a more profound "systematic competition" by 2025, with a focus on ecosystem construction and multi-dimensional competition rather than just parameter scale and benchmark rankings [1][2] - The report highlights the "CBDG four-dimensional ecosystem" (Consumers, Businesses, Devices, Government) as a new paradigm for the industry, emphasizing that success depends on efficient interaction across these dimensions [2] Market Overview - The large model market in China is projected to reach CNY 294.16 billion in 2024, representing a 62% year-on-year growth from 2023, and is expected to exceed CNY 700 billion by 2026, with multi-modal models being the main growth driver [7][8] - Multi-modal models are expected to account for CNY 156.3 billion in 2024, making up 53% of the overall market, with key application scenarios including digital humans (24%), gaming (13%), and advertising (13%) [7] Policy Evolution - The development of large models in China has been guided by policy, which has evolved through three key phases: strategic establishment (2017-2020), system construction (2020-2023), and regulatory leadership (2023-2025) [8][10] - Recent policies focus on balancing innovation with safety, establishing a framework for "innovation-driven, foundational reinforcement, scenario-driven, and safety governance" [8] Ecosystem Paradigm - The CBDG ecosystem is characterized by interdependent relationships that create a self-reinforcing cycle, where government policies guide business implementations, businesses develop solutions that serve consumers and devices, and feedback loops optimize these solutions [11][19] - The consumer end serves as a testing ground for application innovation, while the business end is crucial for monetizing technology [14][15] Competitive Landscape - The report outlines a five-dimensional evaluation system for assessing the competitiveness of large model companies, focusing on ecosystem construction, technology research and development, industry empowerment, commercial monetization, and innovation expansion [21] - Companies are encouraged to shift from merely attracting developers to enhancing ecosystem activity and practical performance [24][25] Future Trends - The report predicts three major transformations in the large model industry from 2025 to 2026: a shift from multi-modal cognition to embodied intelligence, a restructuring of the value chain towards application layers, and a balanced approach to safety and innovation in governance [45][46][47] - The industry is expected to see increased collaboration among major players, with a focus on integrating large models into various sectors such as manufacturing and education [47]