光伏周价格 | 硅料价格弱势维稳，硅片、电池承压下行

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to downward pressure on prices across various segments of the supply chain [20]. Group 1: Polysilicon - Current industry inventory remains above 420,000 tons, primarily due to increased polysilicon output in October and cautious purchasing by downstream manufacturers [4]. - Supply is inconsistent, with some manufacturers ramping up production while others, like Tongwei, are reducing operating rates due to maintenance and demand issues, leading to an expected decrease in November output to approximately 127,000 tons [5]. - The market is experiencing a "dual weakness" scenario, with both supply and demand declining, putting continued pressure on polysilicon prices [6]. - Despite high inventory levels, there is some support for prices due to anticipated supply reductions and expectations of a "stockpiling" policy [7]. Group 2: Wafer - Current wafer inventory has risen to over 21 GW, with low purchasing willingness from downstream markets due to a bearish outlook on future prices [8]. - Demand remains weak, leading to a consensus among manufacturers to reduce production in response to price declines and high inventory levels [9]. - Overall transaction prices for wafers are continuing to decline, with significant price drops observed in second and third-tier companies, while leading firms still show some price support [10]. Group 3: Cell - Current inventory levels for cells are maintained at around 5-7 days, but there is structural differentiation, with pressure concentrated on the 210 RN size [11]. - Demand is structurally weak, particularly for the 210 RN size, with a notable increase in inventory for the 183 N size due to reduced demand from India [12]. - Overall price risks for cells are significant, with prices for the 183 N size approaching 0.3 RMB/W, and the 210 RN size stabilizing around 0.28-0.285 RMB/W [13]. Group 4: Modules - As winter approaches, outdoor projects are winding down, leading to reduced orders for module manufacturers and a decline in both domestic and overseas demand [14]. - The market is primarily supported by domestic centralized projects, but demand for 210 size modules is expected to drop sharply next month, putting pressure on prices [14]. - Overall, the module market is facing significant downward pressure due to weak terminal demand and insufficient order reserves [14].