跌跌不休的烧碱，可以抄底了吗？

Market Trends - Since the end of August, caustic soda futures prices have been on a downward trend, closing at 2343 RMB/ton as of November 6, with spot prices fluctuating between 2500-2600 RMB/ton without significant drops [1][2] - The main reasons for the continuous decline in futures prices include: a lack of significant inventory reduction during the autumn maintenance peak, a rebound in liquid chlorine prices boosting chlor-alkali plant profits, and a large number of warehouse receipts leading to pressure on speculative long positions [2][3] Supply and Production - In October, domestic caustic soda production reached 3.61 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.79%, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.22%, slightly down by 0.42% [7][9] - Despite maintenance affecting 771,000 tons of capacity, high operational rates have kept supply ample, with expectations of continued production increases in November [9] - The average gross profit for chlor-alkali enterprises in Shandong was 626 RMB/ton, an increase of 9.25% from the previous week [10] Demand and Inventory - The demand side shows signs of weakness, particularly in the alumina sector, where high operational rates have led to saturated inventory levels, causing a decline in caustic soda purchase prices [14][18] - By the end of October, national caustic soda inventory reached 442,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.84% and a year-on-year increase of 52.42% [18] - The overall supply-demand imbalance is attributed to high capacity utilization rates above 80% and weak demand from non-alumina sectors, leading to significant inventory accumulation [18] Market Outlook - Guotai Junan Futures suggests that the high production and inventory levels of caustic soda will continue, with limited supply-demand gaps expected in the winter maintenance season [21][22] - The outlook for November indicates a continued increase in production due to short maintenance periods and high operational willingness among chlor-alkali enterprises [23] - The overall market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of caustic soda prices continuing to fluctuate downward, although the current futures market is deeply discounted [22][24]