深夜食堂第十三季｜在极端市场环境中，如何寻求“稳”的力量

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market environment characterized by volatility and the significance of the number "4000" in relation to the Shanghai Composite Index and gold prices, highlighting the challenges faced by investors in maintaining stability in their portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Insights - Zhang Ronghe, a fund manager at Guotai Fund, emphasizes the importance of understanding investor needs and constructing portfolios that provide a stable experience for holders [3][9]. - He believes that portfolio management is a structural optimization problem under multiple constraints, focusing on creating a "usable combination" within defined boundaries [5][6]. - Zhang's investment philosophy includes a strong emphasis on communication with investors, particularly through quarterly reports, to align expectations and experiences [9][62]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The article notes a significant divergence between traditional industries and technology stocks, with the latter showing strong performance while the former remains under pressure [20][26]. - Zhang observes that the market's current low volatility and high concentration in certain sectors may lead to a reversal of trends, suggesting opportunities in domestic demand as economic conditions evolve [9][28]. - He highlights the cyclical nature of investments, particularly in core assets that have been overlooked, indicating that such periods may present opportunities for finding discrepancies in expectations [27][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Zhang advocates for a balanced approach to asset allocation, adjusting portfolios based on market conditions and asset performance, rather than maintaining a static strategy [21][22]. - He advises investors to diversify their portfolios to mitigate systemic risks, suggesting that combining assets with negative correlations can enhance overall stability [41]. - The importance of adjusting expectations regarding returns is emphasized, encouraging investors to accept a gradual wealth-building process rather than seeking immediate high returns [40][41]. Group 4: Macro Economic Considerations - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment, with many investors recognizing a stagflation period rather than a high-growth, low-inflation scenario [34][35]. - Zhang points out the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing inflation control and unemployment rates, which could significantly impact asset prices [37]. - He notes that the current market dynamics, including the performance of AI stocks, do not align with traditional economic indicators, suggesting a complex relationship between asset performance and macroeconomic conditions [36][38].