行业透视 | 11月新房供应低位持稳，主城区改善产品为供给主力

Core Viewpoint - The new housing supply in November remains at a low level, with a slight month-on-month increase of 5% across 28 cities, but a significant year-on-year decline of 46% [2][5]. Supply Overview - In November, the estimated new housing supply across 28 cities is 5.18 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5% but a year-on-year decrease of 46% [5]. - The supply in first-tier cities shows a month-on-month recovery, primarily driven by Beijing and Guangzhou, with a month-on-month increase of 14% but a year-on-year decline of 40% [6]. - The supply in second-tier cities remains flat, but there is a growing divergence among cities, with some cities experiencing significant increases while others see continued declines [6][7]. - In third and fourth-tier cities, supply has reached a low point, with a month-on-month increase of 61% but a year-on-year decrease of 34% [7]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is characterized by a focus on improvement needs, with 28% for basic needs, 55% for improvement, and 17% for high-end products [11]. - Nearly 80% of cities rely on the main urban area for supply, with a significant portion of cities showing a dominant supply of improvement products [11][14]. - The distribution of supply across urban areas shows that 70% is concentrated in the main urban area, 23% in the near suburbs, and 7% in the far suburbs [14]. Market Expectations - The market is expected to see a decline in new housing transaction volumes, with many cities shifting from growth to decline in transaction expectations [17][18]. - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 32%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10 percentage points [19]. - The second-hand housing market continues to experience a downward trend, with limited appeal to price-sensitive buyers due to the overall improvement in new housing products [19]. City-Specific Insights - In November, cities like Beijing and Guangzhou are expected to see a month-on-month increase in new housing supply, while cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are experiencing significant declines [20]. - The expected new housing transaction volumes for November show a mixed outlook, with some cities like Shenzhen and Wuhan showing signs of weak recovery, while others like Zhengzhou and Fuzhou are expected to see continued declines [20].