中美吉隆坡经贸磋商：谈成什么？还剩什么？未来如何？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China economic negotiations mark a new phase in their trade relationship, characterized by a shift from cautious responses to strategic interactions, although significant structural challenges remain [5][7][12]. Summary by Sections Negotiation Outcomes - The US has made key concessions, including the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and the suspension of 24% retaliatory tariffs for one year [8][10]. - The US will also pause the implementation of the 50% export control rule and the 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year [8][9]. China's Response - China has adjusted its retaliatory measures, including suspending the 10% and 15% tariffs on US agricultural and energy products, and halting new export controls on rare earth materials for one year [9][10]. - Both sides have reached agreements on fentanyl cooperation, expanding agricultural trade, and addressing specific corporate cases [9]. Unresolved Issues - Despite the concessions, the US retains a 10% tariff and has not fully resolved the 20% cumulative tariffs imposed since the fentanyl issue began [10][11]. - The average tariff rate on US imports from China remains high, with estimates around 30% during the negotiation period [10][11]. Strategic Dynamics - The trade conflict resembles a repeated prisoner's dilemma, where both sides benefit from cooperation but risk mutual loss from conflict [13]. - The US's reliance on Chinese agricultural products and rare earth materials creates vulnerabilities that China can exploit in negotiations [15]. Future Outlook - The ongoing negotiations are expected to be prolonged and challenging, with significant differences in tariff and non-tariff barriers complicating discussions [17]. - China's economic resilience and technological advancements provide it with leverage in future negotiations, emphasizing the importance of internal strength in mitigating external pressures [18].