连平：明年经济工作运行的六方面政策建议

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's economy, highlighting the challenges and structural imbalances in investment, while emphasizing the need for targeted policies to stimulate growth in the face of external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand [2][3]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding the target of around 5% set during the "Two Sessions" [3]. - The quarterly growth rates were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, indicating a trend of "high at the beginning and stable later" [3]. Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in the last quarter [5]. - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale industries rose to 74.6%, with manufacturing at 74.8% [5]. - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a 9.7% increase in added value, contributing significantly to overall industrial growth [5][6]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 2.4% in the third quarter [6][8]. - New consumption patterns, including digital and green consumption, are on the rise, with significant growth in online retail and new energy vehicles [8]. Export Performance - Exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 7.84% increase in the third quarter [8]. - The share of exports to the U.S. has decreased from approximately 20.7% during Trump's first term to 10.44% [8]. - Mechanical and high-tech products, such as integrated circuits and automobiles, are driving export growth [9]. Inflation and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices declining by 1.8% [13][14]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has shown a steady increase, reaching 1.0% in September [15]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed [17]. Investment Challenges - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5%, with real estate investment dropping by 13.9% [23][24]. - The decline in foreign investment is significant, with a 12.6% drop in foreign enterprise investment [27]. - Investment in the eastern region is particularly weak, with a 4.5% decline [27]. Policy Recommendations - The article suggests setting a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for the next year, with a CPI target of 2.0% [32][34]. - It recommends maintaining an active fiscal policy with a deficit rate of around 4.2% and increasing government investment in infrastructure and technology [34][35]. - Monetary policy should remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts to stimulate consumption and investment [36].