短期波动后，A股港股还会继续向上吗？｜第413期精品课程

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks over the past year is attributed to improved liquidity leading to valuation increases and certain sectors experiencing profit growth [50]. Group 1: Market Trends and Performance - After a rapid market correction due to tariff crises in early October 2025, the market rebounded, indicating volatility is normal even in a bull market [5][6]. - The overall market trend from September 2024 to October 2025 shows a significant upward movement, with the CSI All Share Index increasing over 50%, despite multiple corrections exceeding 5% [8][24]. - Historical analysis indicates that even during major bull markets, such as in 2007, significant corrections occurred, highlighting the cyclical nature of market movements [7][9]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Market Surge - The recent surge in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is primarily due to two factors: valuation improvement and profit growth in certain sectors [50]. - Valuation improvement is largely driven by a previous extreme undervaluation, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks at a historical low of 5.9 stars, significantly below the global average by 50% [21][22]. - Global stock markets have seen an increase of 22.98%, with the CSI All Share Index rising by 62% over the past year, indicating strong performance relative to global peers [24]. Group 3: Profit Growth in Specific Sectors - Certain sectors, particularly technology and pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, have shown significant profit growth, contributing to the overall market rise [32][36]. - The Hong Kong technology index experienced a remarkable profit growth of 128.92% year-on-year in Q1 2025, although growth rates slowed to 51.24% in Q2 [36]. - A-shares in the dividend and Hong Kong consumer sectors have also shown stable profit growth, although A-share consumer sectors are experiencing a slowdown in growth rates [37][43]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The potential for continued market growth hinges on two main factors: the maintenance of a loose liquidity environment and ongoing improvements in the fundamental economic landscape [45][47]. - If the valuation remains low and profits continue to grow, the market index is likely to keep rising, with many undervalued stocks still present [48].