想当 “包租公” 稳拿 5% 收益，结果却亏到姥姥家

Core Insights - The essence of REITs is that local governments take a one-time cash flow for 20-30 years, leaving the risks to the market [2] - Retail investors are not "landlords" but rather "risk bearers of debt instruments" [2] - The stability of cash flow over 20 years is a myth; instead, REITs are characterized by slow declines and small fluctuations [2] Group 1: Investment Characteristics - 86%-92% of the ownership and operational rights of all listed and under-review REITs are held by local governments, central enterprises, and local state-owned enterprises, with private enterprises only accounting for 10%-14% [2] - REITs primarily serve as tools for central and local state-owned assets to realize future cash flows [2] - The participation of private assets in REITs faces significant barriers, including land acquisition, scale thresholds, and exemptions from state-owned asset transfers [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The REITs market is dominated by institutions, with 40% of original equity holders locking their shares, while retail investors only account for 5% of the market but contribute 35% of the trading volume [2] - The proportion of institutional investors is expected to exceed 97% by 2025-2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - REITs are not simply "stable rental income" but are equity assets that can be leveraged, have time limits, may experience vacancies, and are sensitive to policy changes [2][3] Group 3: Performance Issues - A specific REIT has seen a 16% year-on-year decline in rental rates and a drop in actual rental area by nearly 20%, indicating potential issues with major clients [4] - The rental collection rate has decreased by 6% year-on-year to only 65%, raising concerns about future bad debts [4] - The weighted average lease terms have shown a decline, which is unusual for industrial parks that typically have longer lease durations [4] Group 4: Broader Market Sentiment - Historical performance of certain REITs has shown that perceived low risk can lead to significant losses over time, as evidenced by a notable decline over five years [5] - The oversupply of industrial parks and office buildings necessitates careful scrutiny of the underlying assets of REITs [8] - The experience from international markets suggests that REITs often exhibit volatility comparable to stocks, contradicting the notion of them being low-risk investments [8]