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是长江电力带崩了大盘吗?
集思录· 2025-08-01 09:22
岁神 是为ZF化债的长江电力带崩了大盘吗? 政府没钱修船闸,然后就向国企化缘了,如果国企是ZF百分比持股那没说得,但还有那么多个人 股东的嘛。 这算另一种形式的化债吗? 这件事虽然看起来不大,但传递信号却不太好。所以对于国企而言,哪有啥真正的市场经济,只 是ZF的第二钱袋子。 所以这波牛市,大家永远不要入戏太深,时刻提醒自己,这波人造水牛主要是用来化债的,而不 是让金融消费者爽呆呆的。 hillstar 经济增量少的时候,主要税种就要从流通税转向财产税了。现在是开始向各种大户豪强征税的阶 段。 这事挺迷的,因为200亿不是没有其他解决的方案,学习茅台搞特别分红呀。一年不够就分两年 咯,分红出去的钱凑够两百亿,政府想干嘛干嘛谁也管不着,加大分红力度对红利还是大利好。 zf里的高人不可能不知道这样做的负面影响,可还是这么做了,那就有点意思了,有点投石问路 的味道。先拿关注度高的长点试点如果顺利的话后续可以批量复制,珠玉在前,长电都过了其他 的更简单。化斋新思路。 鼎级外星人 长江是自然河流,以前一直可以通航,并不是巴拿马苏伊士那样的人工运河, 当然,没有三峡大坝之前,万吨级船舶无法到达重庆等上游, 但对于中小船舶 ...
预测下牛市可能的顶部区域?
集思录· 2025-07-31 14:28
以下是大致一些数据,供大家参考 上证,上轮顶部3731,当前3582,距离顶部4% 中证全指,上轮6073,当前5173,距离顶部17% 深证,上轮16293,当前11059,距离顶部47% 港股,上轮31183,当前25538,距离顶部22% 巴菲特指标,上轮97%,当前81%,距离20% 中证全指,本轮最低3566,当前5173,涨45% 港股,本轮最低14794,当前25538,涨72% 怎么感觉牛市进入后半程了,最多有20%空间呢,大家一般如何估算牛市顶部区域的呢? luckzpz @心太软 身边一个不炒股的朋友咨询我开户的事情 早着呢! 等他向你推荐股票再担心吧。 glasses 熊市不言底,牛市不猜顶。 当前缓慢上行,很多韭菜都战战兢兢的,一根阴线能吓跑一小半人,说明没疯狂,等到人人 看多,老韭菜都不提风险的时候,就是顶部了。 每次向老婆汇报炫耀后,账户就差不多要跌回去了。最近尽量憋着在家里避免谈到投资的 事,哪天憋不住也就到顶了。 blacklevi0823 看哪天基金又开始比例配售了 你就可以马上跑路了 因为韭菜都上车了。 转身瞬间 楼市熄火,股市可能会超出你的想象。 东楚散汉 就上证来说,应 ...
8月1日投资提示:ST应急复牌
集思录· 2025-07-31 14:28
浩瀚深度:股东拟减持不超2.17%公司股份 通光转债,微芯转债:不强赎 中船应急 2022 年年报披露财务报表存在收入确认和坏账计提不准确的会计差错。一是对部分产 品提前确认收入,。二是对部分应收债权坏账计提方法、账龄分类错误。两项综合导致上市公司 2022 年营业收入多计 3,137.24 万元,占当期营业收入的 1.86%;营业成本多计 1,839.09 万 元,占当期营业成本的1.40%;利润总额多计 714.03 万元,占 2022 年当期披露利润总额绝对值 的 36.64%。 山鹰国际:拟以股权作价29.77亿元设立合伙企业引入长期投资者 山鹰国际控股股份公司拟以下属子公司股权作价 297,704.35 万元出资设立芜湖胜鹰企业管理咨 询合伙企业(有限合伙)(暂定名,以下简称"胜鹰企管"),并以转让合伙企业部分合伙份额的 形式式引入长期投资者中国东方资产管理股份有限公司(以下简称"东方资产")、财信吉祥人寿 保险股份有限公司(以下简称"财信人寿")、信达资本管理有限公司(以下简称"信达资本")和淄 博恒铁投资合伙企业(有限合伙(以下简称"淄博恒铁"),转让金额合计不超过人民币 7.475 亿 元,本 ...
交易的最高境界
集思录· 2025-07-30 12:45
Core Viewpoint - The highest realm of trading is to achieve a state of minimal concern and effort, akin to a strategic approach in warfare, where one seeks to win without direct conflict [3][10]. Group 1: Trading Philosophy - Trading is likened to warfare, where each buy represents a strategic move, and successful traders possess the ability to buy low and sell high, achieving victories through skill [3]. - For most investors, diversification and small position sizes are recommended to mitigate risks, allowing for gradual accumulation of gains [3]. - The ultimate goal is to reach a state of "no desire" in trading, focusing on simplicity and detachment from emotional influences [10][11]. Group 2: Strategies for Success - Successful trading involves waiting for the right opportunities, which can be achieved through global asset allocation or by waiting for market downturns to buy undervalued assets [5]. - The concept of "buy and hold" is emphasized, with the idea that the best investments are those that do not require selling [7]. - Understanding market cycles, participant psychology, and value assessments is crucial for making informed trading decisions [13].
31日投资提示:灵康转债下修到底
集思录· 2025-07-30 12:45
据说北交所新股酉立智能碎骨门槛647w,大家都中到了吧? 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区,专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下,使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询: 仙乐转债,声迅转债,晶瑞转2:不下修 鼎佳精密:北交所新股【上市】 关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议,仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损,本公众号 及作者概不承担任何责任。 灵康转债:下修到底 甘肃能化:下属王家山煤矿一号井复产 奥飞转债:不强赎 东杰智能:控股股东上层股权结构拟发生变动暨实控人可能发生变更 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 ...
30日投资提示:天23转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-07-29 13:50
Group 1 - The board of Tian23 Convertible Bond proposed a down adjustment [1] - A shareholder of Aotewei plans to reduce their stake by no more than 1.37% [1] - Meijin Energy's largest shareholder, Meijin Energy Group, has pledged all of its shares, totaling 35.32 million shares, which accounts for 2.15% of its holdings and 0.80% of the company's total share capital [1] - As of July 28, 2025, Meijin Group's cumulative pledged shares represent 100% of its total holdings [1] - Haoyuan Convertible Bond and Huicheng Convertible Bond will not be forcibly redeemed [1] - Yinwei Convertible Bond and Guowei Convertible Bond will not undergo down adjustment [1]
生育补贴利好哪些相关行业?
集思录· 2025-07-29 13:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical significance of direct cash subsidies for childbirth in China, emphasizing that this approach represents a qualitative shift in policy aimed at addressing demographic challenges and encouraging higher birth rates [2][10]. Group 1: Subsidy Impact - The direct cash subsidy of 3,600 yuan per year for each newborn is seen as a substantial incentive for families, particularly in rural areas where this amount can significantly impact their financial situation [2][5]. - The potential for future increases in subsidies, such as a monthly payment of 1,000 yuan, indicates a progressive approach to supporting families and could further influence birth rates [4][9]. - The total projected expenditure for these subsidies is estimated at 1,026 billion yuan over three years, which is considered more impactful than traditional infrastructure investments [10]. Group 2: Demographic Challenges - The article highlights that the real issue affecting birth rates is not just financial support but also broader socio-economic factors, such as housing affordability and marriage prospects, particularly in urban areas [6][7]. - There is a recognition that many young people, especially women, are reluctant to settle in rural areas due to limited opportunities and social conditions, which affects their willingness to have children [6][8]. - The discussion points out that the current demographic policies are primarily targeting the lower-income population, which has been largely overlooked in previous economic strategies [5][10]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The article suggests that sectors related to children, such as pharmaceuticals, dairy products, and children's clothing, are likely to benefit from the increased focus on childbirth and family support [2]. - The sentiment in the market is bullish, with expectations that any positive news related to child-rearing will lead to significant stock price increases in related industries [2].
29日投资提示:蓝帆转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-07-28 14:21
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent birth subsidy policy introduced by the government, highlighting that the amount of 300 yuan per month is considered insufficient by some individuals [1] - It mentions specific convertible bonds: Puna Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption, Blue Fan Convertible Bond's board proposed a down adjustment, and Tai Fu Convertible Bond is not subject to strong redemption [1] - The article notes the listing of Zhongyin Zhongwai Warehouse Logistics REIT (508090) and the new stock subscription for Youli Intelligent on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]
2025年的反内卷像不像2015年的供给侧改革?
集思录· 2025-07-28 14:21
国家发改委:推动整治内卷式竞争 中国新闻社 花过水无痕 2015年供给侧本质是"去煤老板",资源型的都归国企央企,去的是民企上游产能,现在能去 谁? 本质是供需关系上贸易战需求大幅减少,大量上游企业又亏损了,找个理由想提提价格,市 场就那么大,国企央企能靠会议精神去产能吗?靠行政指令,然后挂市场化的名头? 本质上,只有民企才有主动去产能(保利润)的动机,不断扩大化再生产对于国企领导才是 可以向上管理的政绩。上游企业把价格涨上去了,下游民企往东南亚、墨西哥什么地方跑得 更快了。 KiteSonder 内卷的根源是分配极度不公平,98%的人抢20%的资源,只能卷; 源头问题不解决,除非接受社会性死亡彻底躺了,否则该卷还是得卷啊。 个人只能增加生产时间了(卷); 公司也类似,包括进一步压低价格抢分配比例。 地理科代表 最应该反内卷的是工资! shuiying 一边反内卷,另一边给垂死的企业放贷输血。 keaven 反内卷去的是卷价的企业,留的是卷质的企业。 充电宝行业就是一个例子,强制3C认证和提 升标准,就会淘汰好多企业。 所以,反内卷,核心就是拿指标说话,提升国标要求。自然而然就优化产业结构了。 但坏处是,消费 ...
7月28日投资提示:金能转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-07-27 14:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various convertible bonds and new stock offerings, highlighting specific actions taken by companies regarding their bonds and the upcoming subscription for a new stock. Group 1: Convertible Bonds - Jineng Convertible Bond: The board proposed a downward adjustment [1] - Yuguang Convertible Bond: No strong redemption [1] - Liancheng Convertible Bond, Bohui Convertible Bond, Yong'an Convertible Bond: Strong redemption [1] - Qiaqia Convertible Bond: No downward adjustment [1] Group 2: New Stock Offerings - Youli Intelligent: New stock subscription on July 29 at the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - Ber25 Convertible Bond: Recently listed [1] - Tianfulong: New stock subscription on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [1]