通过投资，我发现了自己一个巨大的缺陷，很难活在当下。比如，总幻想着复利的力量，幻想着自己未来多少钱可以财富自由，未来什么 时候可以不上班，未来什么问题解决了就多好多好。纵然对未来的期待是必要的，也是自己前进的动力。但换一个角度，自己的当下不也 是以前的自己所幻想的吗，未来的目标若实现了，还会有另外的期盼和幻想。自己究竟有没有享受当下这一刻的生活，体会当下的小确 幸。未来财富自由了又怎么样，不上班了又能怎么样，一样还要为选择去做什么去不断的规划设计和期盼。这样的生存态度想一想就让人 绝望。投资人，你有真正活在当下的快乐吗？尤其是已经全职的投资人，你们离开职场后，有过上自己曾经幻想的生活方式吗？是享受当 下的快乐，还是同样憧憬着另外一个虚无缥缈的明天。 资水 离开职场后，到处溜达，一边溜达，一边挣点小钱，有点享受。不知道算不算活在当下？图片说话。 租个电驴环洱海 也有过去腾格里沙漠浪 做职业投资的都是活在当下的人，辞职了自由了爽了。 现在手里有300多万，在讨论财富自由需要多少钱的帖子里，这点钱还远远不够大家认为自由的标准，但我早就自由了。 在我2018年准备辞职的时候算过经济账，那时有一百万冒点头，按年化收益2 ...

本人的结论是，乐观来看，大底时房价的租售比应为5%左右，悲观来看，大底的租售比应 7%。但租售比过于静态，使用"年租金÷（无风险收益率 +风险溢价+ 持有成本）=合理房屋 售价"这个公式更灵活一点。 20 年前每天我每天上天涯看那些房价预测贴，每天看经济学家学者网红如谢国忠，易宪容， 牛刀激辩房价走势。最后我拜在欧总门下，学习执行水库大法。我想说的是别去预测，跟风 就行，这样赚得多。 谦信 说个不一样的观点，房地产的时代已经结束了，房子会一直跌下去。用房价租售比、房贷利 率去衡量房价是否高估低估根本就不靠谱。有以下原因： 1、当前房子一级、二级市场库存非常庞大，新生人口减少背景下，根本不会有多少人接盘。 2、房子租售比其实是个伪命题，和股息率根本不一样。你花100万元买股票，每年收5万元 股息，100万本金还是你的（优质的公司除息后会填权），你买了房子看起来收了租金，但房 子在持续折旧，国内房子年限普遍就30年左右，届时成为老破小，尤其普遍高层根本没任何 价值。 3、房子的本质和汽车更像，更像消费品，流动性极差、现金流账根本算不过来，供给库存无 限大，投资价值甚至不如比特币，后者至少流动性非常好。 xcgdg ...

有老师提供信息，10月31日有两只巴西ETF认购 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/514729 | 代码 | 证券名称 | 募集起始日 | 募集截止日 | 跟踪指数 | 基金管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159100 | 巴西ETF | 2025年10月31日 | 2025年10月31日 | 巴西伊博维斯帕指数 | 花直喜美 | | 520870 | 巴西ETF | 2025年10月31日 | 2025年10月31日 | 巴西伊博维斯帕指数 | 易方达基金 | 查了下美股巴西ETF的历史收益如下，20年到现在25年大概5倍 宏川转债，声迅转债：不下修 锦浪转02：11月6日上市 关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众号 及作者概不承担任何责任。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区，专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下，使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询： 是个"亏钱"的手艺吗？大 ...

晶能转债：提议下修 集智转债，航宇转债，松霖转债：不强赎 奥维转债，伟22转债，恒逸转债：不下修 颀中转债：11月3日申购 福能转债：【上市】 | 转债代码 | 转债名称 | 现价 | 强赎价 | 最后交易日 | 最后转股日 | 转股价值 | 剩余规模 | 转债占正股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | (亿元) | 流通市值比 | | 123166 | 蒙泰转债 | 141.799 | 101.190 | 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-29 | 143.59 | 0.015 | 0.05% | | 113675 | 新23转债 | 144.636 | 100.219 | 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-29 | 145.01 | 0.008 | 0.00% | | 128095 | 恩捷转债 | 127.714 | 101.440 | 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-30 | 127.93 | 0.053 | 0.01% | | 123217 | Z仕转债 | 13 ...

今年的牛市让我这个偏绝对收益的投资者体感不好，逆境自然会多一些思考，希望可以顺境 赚收益，逆境赚成长吧。 2001年开始炒股，2016年开始职投，投资的时长也有25年了。我是1975年的，今年50岁。 如果幸运的话，还应该可以投资做到75岁。差不多投资生涯正好过半。这前面25年，前15年 就是业余炒股，职投10年是低风险之路，目前主仓策略就是三个方面，一是对冲套利，二是 防守策略可转债，三是现金增强型的策略（北交所打新，港股打新，冲量这些），其他策略 都是小仓。因为一直都没迈入正循环，变成能力圈的本事。职投10年投资收益基本上是按月 不回撤，但只要懂的人都会知道，只做这三个方面，也的确很难赔钱。总结下来这些主策略 都是低波特征，我甚至一个高波的品种都做不好。需要承担风险获得收益的牛市，我更显得 无所适从。 这么多年下来，我都做不好高波，大概率这辈子也够呛，但万事无绝对，毕竟时间还有的 是，也许某个机缘遇到高人指点带领，也能走入正循环，慢慢积累起来。 请能做好高波的高手多指点一下，大家共同启发！ cdhr 打新交朋友大哥，我想了一晚上，指点是不敢的，想起一段经历，特来分享 女儿上小学前，我经常带她出去耍，比如欢 ...

今天看浦发公告最后浦发转债只到期兑付了1.8亿元，我心里一惊。 这说明99.64%的浦发转债都转股了。 冠中转债：不强赎 嘉泽新能：股东拟减持不超3%公司股份 绿动转债：不下修 因为就在4个月前的6月26日，浦发转债还是有500亿剩余规模呢 | 序号 | 目期 | 收盘价 | 成交额 | 转股价值 | 到期权即 | 转股 | 製筒製臭 | 换手率 | 正股价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (万元) | | 收益率 | 溢价率 | (亿元) | | | | 79 | 2025-07-01 | 113.409 | 159016.76 | 109.75 | -9.30% | 3.33% | 382.100 | 3.66% | 14.18 | | 80 | 2025-06-30 | 112.749 | 66692.07 | 107.43 | -7.48% | 4.95% | 382.100 | 1.55% | 13.88 | | 81 | 2025-06-27 | 112,400 | 172054.86 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting the significant increase in share reduction plans by listed companies and the implications for various industries, particularly electronics and semiconductors. Group 1: Share Reduction Plans - As of September 2025, a total of 1,979 listed companies have announced share reduction plans involving 3,597 individuals, with an expected reduction amount exceeding 380 billion [3] - The scale of share reductions in 2025 is significantly larger than the 170 billion in 2024, with over 60% of the reductions occurring during the index rise from May to July [3] - The electronics, computer, and machinery equipment sectors lead in share reduction amounts, with the electronics sector accounting for nearly 20% of total reductions in A-shares [3] Group 2: Market Valuation Comparison - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index at 4,000 points is 2.87, compared to 5 around the same index level in April 2015, indicating a substantial decrease in valuation [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has also dropped from 67 times in 2015 to 28.11 currently, suggesting that the current market valuation is significantly lower than in the past [5] - Similar trends are observed in the CSI 500 index, where the PB ratio has decreased from 4.6 to 2.23, and the PE ratio from 50 to 24.33 [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Government Role - The government can provide short-term stimulation to the stock market but cannot sustain long-term growth without consistent economic growth, profit sharing through dividends, and regulatory reforms [10] - There is a consensus that the government’s intervention in the stock market is often temporary, with significant volatility following such interventions [11] - The perception of market consensus among retail investors is less critical than that of major shareholders and institutions, whose strategies and sentiments are less transparent [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of life principles and investment strategies, advocating for a non-discriminatory approach to both people and investment varieties, suggesting that those who cannot embrace the former are unlikely to succeed in the latter [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The essence of investment is seen as arbitrage, with a belief that only highly skilled individuals can share in the growth dividends of enterprises [3]. - A stable dividend is considered the only justification for stock trading, and maintaining a low expectation is crucial for a healthy mindset [4]. - The financial market is likened to a large breeding ground, where only a small percentage of participants (5%) manage to survive and maintain equilibrium [9]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Psychology - Many investors mistakenly attribute their financial success to personal ability, overlooking the role of luck and external factors [11]. - The article suggests that most individuals view the market from a self-centered emotional perspective, rather than understanding the underlying logic and behavior of capital [12]. - It highlights the importance of learning from masters and maintaining humility, as even simple insights can provide profound understanding [13].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has seen significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 2700 points to 4000 points, a 48% increase. The article highlights the performance of major stocks, particularly in the banking and technology sectors, indicating a potential bull market in technology [1]. Group 1: Major Stock Performances - Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) has seen a remarkable increase of 90.8%, with a market capitalization of 2862.86 billion [1]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH) and China Construction Bank (601939.SH) have also performed well, with increases of 48.8% and 39.3% respectively [1]. - Notably, Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has only increased by 11.7%, underperforming compared to the overall market [2]. Group 2: Technology Sector Highlights - The technology sector has shown exceptional growth, with several stocks experiencing over 100% increases in their market value. For instance, Cambrian (688256.SH) surged by 613.6% with a price-to-book ratio of 57.1 [2]. - Other notable performers include Xin Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) with a 496.3% increase and Haiguang Information (688041.SH) with a 230.3% increase [2]. - The article emphasizes that stocks with a price-to-book ratio above 10 have generally outperformed, indicating a strong trend in the technology sector [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Observations - The overall market trend suggests a shift towards technology stocks, with traditional sectors like banking and energy showing more modest gains, typically in the range of 20-30% [2]. - The article notes that the lowest price-to-book ratios are found in older sectors such as banking and construction, which have not seen significant growth compared to technology stocks [2].

目前是牛市还是牛市已经结束。今天收盘仓位100%了，瑟瑟发抖中。 seeker24680 削腚鳄的牛市，不买时一直都是牛市，一买入牛市就结束了。 e老实和尚 没啥好预测的，跌下来减点盈利而已。 ylshxajh 仓位降到30%了，万一涨了我可以再追。 辙鲋 精英选手热身完毕，大众选手还在检录，看台上的领导的发令枪还没有打响。 ck2008 路林 有没有去过山顶不重要，不要奢望卖在最高价，半山腰返回更安全舒适。 sanbeishui 我手里还有大量破净的股票，牛市就结束了？ 集思小子 牛不牛没法预测，就如同猜硬币正反面 成交量无法骗人，如果没有量，就结束了。 本轮牛市持续与否还是很好判断的，因为399986中证银行指数已经于今年7月10号率先见顶 了。其他主流宽基指数在时间上也不会背离太久，所以本轮牛市已近尾声。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区，专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下，使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询： 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 飞花逐月 【农行15连阳累涨近25%】财联社10月23日电，农业银行继续走强现 ...