中金2026年展望 | 电信软件教育：AI惊喜不断，电信分红可期（要点版）

Core Viewpoint - The AI sector is expected to remain a significant growth driver in the software industry through 2026, with AI infrastructure (AI Infra) showing sustained high growth due to emerging applications and increasing enterprise-level AI deployment [2][3]. AI Applications - AI applications are proliferating, leading to upward revisions in investment expectations. Key areas of focus include AI search, multimodal capabilities, innovative hardware, next-generation interactions, intelligent cockpits, and embodied intelligence [4]. - AI search is predicted to capture 25% of traditional search traffic by 2026, creating new market opportunities beyond traditional ecosystems [4]. - The multimodal sector is advancing, with industrial models capable of understanding long videos, potentially doubling the market space for video generation [5]. - Innovative hardware is expected to accelerate the practical application of AI technologies, with companies like Plaud and OpenAI leading the charge in creating AI-native hardware [6][7]. Next-Generation Interactions - The next generation of voice interaction is emerging, with real-time voice communication becoming a standard capability among major model providers. This trend is expected to expand significantly [8]. Intelligent Cockpits and Driving - The integration of large models into intelligent cockpits is gaining traction, with companies exploring AI Box solutions to enhance vehicle capabilities [9]. Embodied Intelligence - The focus in embodied intelligence is shifting from physical robots to their cognitive capabilities, indicating a move towards collaborative industry models [10]. B2B AI Applications - The landscape for B2B AI applications is becoming clearer, although significant breakthroughs may still take time. The pace of AI application deployment varies widely across companies [11]. Telecommunications Services - Telecom operators are entering a post-5G cycle, with revenue growth slowing and capital expenditures decreasing, which supports dividend capabilities [12][13]. - Data centers are entering a performance realization phase, benefiting from increased downstream capital expenditures [14]. Education Sector - The "AI + Education" landscape is diversifying, with market concentration increasing in K12 education and a potential reshaping of the industry due to AI products [15][16]. - In higher education, attention is on cost trends and operational transitions, with signs of positive developments in the sector [17].