中金2026年展望 | 科技硬件：产业链整合与AI创新（要点版）

Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor design sector is expected to maintain high global computing power investment levels through 2026, driven by strong demand for AI new terminals and related chips [2][5] - Domestic wafer manufacturing capacity is anticipated to expand rapidly, maintaining high utilization rates due to strong demand from AI, automotive electronics, and AIoT device upgrades [2][7] - Key investment themes in the manufacturing sector include advancements in process technology and domestic production of storage chips [2][7] ICT Equipment and Supply Chain - The domestic AI computing network is viewed positively, with recommendations to focus on servers, switches, PCBs, liquid cooling, and optical modules [2][10] - The telecommunications industry is expected to benefit from the commercialization of 6G, particularly in wireless communication base stations [2][10] Consumer Electronics - The global smartphone market is projected to experience a mild recovery, with 2026 potentially marking a significant year for AI consumer terminals [3][12] - AI-enabled products such as toys and learning machines are expected to see new developments, driven by decreasing costs of large model AI applications [3][12] Intelligent Driving and Robotics - The automotive electronics sector is expected to benefit from the acceleration of intelligent driving technologies, particularly in sensors and domain controllers [3][16] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be pivotal for the large-scale implementation of AI and robotics, with significant advancements in sensor technology and processing capabilities [3][17] Other Consumer Electronics - Despite short-term disruptions from tariffs, China's core position in the global consumer electronics supply chain remains strong [3][14]