中金 | 量子科技（一）：量子计算，计算新纪元

Core Insights - Quantum computing is accelerating from experimental validation to commercial application, with significant breakthroughs from global tech giants and Chinese prototypes, leading to a projected market growth from $5 billion in 2024 to over $800 billion by 2035, with a CAGR exceeding 55% [2][5][30] - The industry is entering a rapid growth phase, with hardware segments expected to benefit first, particularly in key equipment like dilution refrigerators and measurement control systems [5][30] Industry Overview - Quantum computing, based on quantum mechanics, offers significant advantages in solving complex problems through quantum bits (qubits) that allow for information superposition and entanglement, leading to exponential growth in encoded information [5][7] - Major economies are incorporating quantum information technology into national strategies, with the U.S. increasing funding by $2.7 billion for quantum initiatives from 2025 to 2029, while China emphasizes engineering and commercialization in its planning [5][26] Market Dynamics - The global quantum computing market is expected to reach $50.37 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 58.65% from 2024 to 2029, and projected to exceed $8,077.50 billion by 2035 [30][32] - North America, Europe, and China are the leading regions in the quantum computing market, with North America holding the largest share at 29.8% in 2024 [32] Technological Pathways - Various hardware routes are being explored, including superconducting and ion trap technologies, with superconducting quantum computing leading in patent filings and industrialization progress [15][18] - The development of measurement and control systems is crucial for achieving fault-tolerant quantum computing, with significant advancements made in China to break foreign monopolies [60][62] Application Landscape - Current quantum computing applications are focused on quantum simulation, quantum combinatorial optimization, and quantum linear algebra, with expected implementation timelines ranging from 5 to 20 years across various industries [65][66] - The total market for quantum computing applications is projected to reach $202.67 billion by 2035, with significant collaborations between quantum computing firms and industry giants [65]