中金2026年展望 | 美国宏观：供需新变局

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2025 is experiencing significant divergence, with traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate under pressure from tariffs and immigration policies, while the technology sector is buoyed by a surge in capital expenditure driven by artificial intelligence (AI) [3][5][6]. Supply Side: Tariff and Population Pressures - Tariffs have increased significantly, with the effective tariff rate rising from 2.4% last year to 11.5% this year, leading to a supply contraction effect [7][9]. - Immigration policies have tightened, resulting in a projected decline in population growth from an average of 1.5% during the Biden administration to 0.6% under Trump, which will further suppress labor supply and demand in housing and consumption [8][9]. - The combination of tariffs and reduced immigration is expected to create ongoing supply-side pressures, impacting economic growth potential if productivity does not improve [10]. Demand Side: AI Investment Cycle Fluctuations - AI is contributing approximately 0.7 percentage points to the U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, but the marginal returns on capital investment are expected to decline as investment scales up [13][19]. - Other demand sectors are also facing cooling trends, with the real estate market undergoing active de-inventory and consumer spending showing a "K-shaped" recovery, where high-income groups maintain spending while low-income groups struggle [30][31]. - The AI investment cycle is characterized by heavy capital expenditure, which may not replicate the rapid growth seen during the internet bubble due to higher costs and a more cautious investment environment [19][20]. Inflation: Sticky Dynamics - Inflation is expected to exhibit stickiness, with core goods inflation influenced by tariffs and rental inflation continuing to slow down [4][37]. - Non-rent core service prices are supported by structural demand and labor costs, indicating resilience despite economic pressures [4][38]. - Consumer inflation expectations are rising, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve its inflation targets, with potential shifts in expectations from 2% to 3% [39][46]. Policy Outlook: Fiscal and Monetary Dynamics - Fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to marginally loosen, but the overall stimulative effect may be limited due to offsetting tariff revenues [5][45]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25% [5][45]. - The economic outlook for 2026 predicts a real GDP growth rate of 1.7%, with risks of "stagflation" emerging from supply-side constraints and demand-side weaknesses [5][54].