中金2026年展望 | 互联网：站在新一轮扩张的起点（要点版）

Core Viewpoint - The internet sector is entering a new expansion phase after a three-year period of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with AI, overseas expansion, and instant retail as key investment areas [2][3]. Group 1: Expansion Strategies - Caution is advised regarding domestic consumption market expansion strategies due to insufficient macroeconomic support and industry penetration rates, which may lead to negative impacts in most cases [3]. - Overseas expansion is viewed positively as it breaks the domestic market ceiling, but challenges exist depending on whether the expansion involves virtual products, goods, or services [3]. - AI and technology-related expansions are highly favored, as they are less constrained by domestic market limitations and represent areas previously overlooked by the Chinese internet sector [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The internet sector is experiencing a shift in valuation methods, with a focus on EPS during the 2023-2024 period, leading to potential undervaluation of businesses that do not contribute to EPS [4]. - The AI narrative is expected to drive future valuation adjustments, as seen with companies like Alibaba and Meitu, which have begun to be revalued based on their AI applications [4]. Group 3: E-commerce and Local Services - The e-commerce market is projected to show resilience, benefiting from national subsidies and instant retail, although growth rates may slow in 2026 due to base effects [6]. - The local services market is experiencing intensified competition, particularly in the food delivery sector, with penetration rates increasing from 14% to 16% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Future Catalysts and Drivers - The overseas e-commerce market is expected to accelerate its transformation due to significant tariff disruptions, while instant retail is anticipated to become a new growth point, albeit with limited profit expectations initially [7]. - Domestic and outbound tourism markets are returning to rational growth, with domestic travel showing steady growth and outbound flights recovering to pre-pandemic levels [9]. Group 5: Cloud Computing and AI - The demand for AI in China is robust, with significant growth in various sectors, including internet, gaming, and finance, driving the need for GPU cloud services [11]. - Chinese cloud providers are increasing their capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion yuan over three years to enhance its AI capabilities [12]. - AI is expected to significantly enhance existing business efficiencies, with new applications emerging in media and content production [14].