中金2026年展望 | 汽车及出行设备：关注全球格局再重构下的中国机遇（要点版）

Group 1: Passenger Vehicles - Domestic sales of passenger vehicles have gradually surpassed the previous high point of 2017, with expectations for steady growth if central and local subsidies remain effective. The resilience of growth needs to be observed through 2026 [2][3] - In the new energy sector, technological innovations and model iterations are expected to drive an increase in penetration rates, while the phase-out of purchase tax incentives by the end of 2025 may lead to temporary demand pull-forward. Domestic new energy vehicle sales are projected to maintain double-digit growth [2][3] - The global expansion of Chinese automotive brands is anticipated to accelerate, with overseas sales expected to grow by 5-10% by 2026, and the share of new energy vehicles in exports reaching 50% [8][10] Group 2: Commercial Vehicles - The heavy truck sector is expected to see continued support from the scrappage and renewal policy, with total industry volume projected to grow by 5% year-on-year, reaching 1.05-1.1 million units by 2026. Domestic sales are expected to remain flat or grow by 5% to 710,000-760,000 units, while exports may increase by 10% to 340,000 units [10] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in domestic sales is expected to reach around 30% by 2026, up from 25% in 2025. The L2+ level assisted driving heavy trucks are anticipated to achieve a breakthrough, with penetration rates reaching single digits [10] Group 3: Auto Parts - The growth potential of China's auto parts industry is shifting from domestic demand to international expansion, with a focus on securing orders from European automakers for new energy vehicle components by 2026 [2][11] Group 4: Robotics and Autonomous Driving - The robotics industry is entering a mass production phase, with humanoid robots showing long-term development potential. The industry is expected to accelerate progress, with key catalysts emerging from domestic manufacturers [11][12] - 2026 is projected to be the year for the mass production of L3 autonomous driving, driven by improved regulations and consumer awareness. The penetration rate of high-level autonomous driving is expected to exceed 40% by 2026 [12][13]