英国央行维持基准利率不变：申万期货早间评论-20251107

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of England maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, and paused the quarterly rate cuts that began in August 2024 [1] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq down 1.9%, S&P 500 down 1.12%, and Dow Jones down 0.84%, reflecting a broad sell-off in large tech stocks [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - The European shipping index (EC) fell by 4.08%, closing at 1848.2 points, with Maersk's new shipping rates showing only a slight increase, indicating limited price support in the market [2][29] - Crude oil prices dropped by 1.32% as Saudi Arabia significantly reduced its official selling prices for December to Asian buyers, responding to increased supply from OPEC+ producers [3][14] - Copper prices declined amid tight concentrate supply and fluctuating smelting profits, with long-term support expected due to potential supply gaps from mining incidents [3][21] Group 3: Industry Developments - The polysilicon industry may undergo significant consolidation, with plans for a 70 billion yuan fund to facilitate acquisitions currently under discussion [8] - Domestic coal-to-methanol production facilities are operating at high capacity, with methanol inventories rising to historical highs, indicating a potential oversupply situation [15] - The rubber supply is expected to increase as harvesting progresses, but demand remains weak, leading to potential price adjustments [16] Group 4: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of key inflation data releases, raising concerns among Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy directions [6] - China's President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for steady progress in the Hainan Free Trade Port construction, aiming to enhance trade and investment liberalization [7] - The bond market showed mixed results, with a slight increase in the yield of 10-year government bonds to 1.8%, reflecting ongoing liquidity management by the central bank [12][13]