能评估价值的领域都是价值投资的范围,科技并不例外
聪明投资者·2025-11-07 03:05

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant performance disparity between value and growth investments, highlighting the ongoing debate between "value investors" and "growth investors" in the context of the current market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Value Investment and Technology - The perception that value investing and technology investing are mutually exclusive is prevalent, with value investors often criticized for not engaging with tech stocks [3][7]. - Value investment encompasses any area where value can be assessed, including technology, although the barriers to evaluating value in different sectors vary [4][12]. - The development of AI is expected to drive demand growth in the semiconductor industry, indicating that value assessments can be made in this sector despite its complexities [15][16]. Group 2: Conditions for Assessing Company Value - Three conditions are essential for determining a company's value: the long-term demand baseline, the business model's viability, and the assessability of the company's competitive advantage [17][19]. - Current profitability is not a prerequisite for investment; what matters is the presence of a competitive moat and long-term demand [20][21]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry, particularly wafer foundries, is characterized by a stable business model and a clear competitive moat, making it a sector where value can be assessed [25][31]. - The investment required for advanced process nodes in semiconductor manufacturing is substantial, leading to a niche market dominated by a few leading firms [30][31]. Group 4: Storage Industry Dynamics - The storage industry is experiencing rapid demand growth, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), driven by AI applications [36][37]. - The shift from traditional computing to AI has altered the storage requirements, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and significant price increases for DRAM [36][38]. Group 5: Domestic vs. International Competitiveness - The competitive landscape in semiconductor manufacturing is evolving, with domestic firms gaining opportunities due to the push for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor sector [41][42]. - The ability to overcome initial disadvantages in technology and customer acquisition is crucial for domestic firms to compete effectively [40][42]. Group 6: Future of Value Assessment - The concept of "self-sufficiency" is expected to influence how companies' values are assessed, potentially altering market share and profitability expectations for domestic firms [44][45]. - The fundamental understanding of business operations remains unchanged, but the parameters for evaluating companies will adapt to reflect new market realities [46][48]. Group 7: Long-term Investment Opportunities - The slowing pace of technological advancement in semiconductors suggests that the industry may not see rapid iterations in the future, leading to a focus on stable, value-generating companies [50][55]. - Identifying companies that can create value amidst these changes will be essential for value investors, emphasizing the importance of thorough research and understanding of market dynamics [59][61].